基于逻辑回归模型的凉山州滑坡易发性评价

Evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture based on logistic regression model

凉山州地质环境复杂,地质灾害频发,为了防止凉山州因灾致贫、因灾返贫,对凉山州滑坡灾害进行易发性评价。选择10个因子,分析因子与滑坡的分布规律,并建立逻辑回归模型对凉山州滑坡灾害进行易发性评价。结果表明:凉山州滑坡分布于高程1 800 m~2 300 m;坡度10°~30°;坡向为东方向;坡位为中坡;距道路距离和距断层距离为小于2 km,NDVI为0.7~0.8;TWI为2~4;岩组为碎屑岩;土地利用类型为耕地。滑坡极高易发区位于凉山州中部安宁河、则木河断裂带两侧和东部汉源-甘洛带、峨边-金阳断裂带两侧。

Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture has a complex geological environment and frequent geological disasters.In order to prevent Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture from becoming poor or returning to poverty due to disasters,the susceptibility to landslide disasters in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture was evaluated.This article selects 10 factors,analyzes the distribution patterns of factors and landslides,and constructs a logistic regression model to evaluate the susceptibility to landslide disasters in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture.The results show that landslides are distributed at an elevation of 1800 m~2300 m;the slope of 10°~30°;the aspect of east;the slope position of mid-slope;the distance from the road and the fault are less than 2 km,and NDVI of 0.7~0.8;TWI of 2~4;the rock group is clastic rock;the land use type is cultivated land.The extremely high and prone areas for landslides are located on both sides of the Anning River and Zemu River fault zones in central Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture and on both sides of the Hanyuan-Ganluo zone and Ebian-Jinyang fault zone in the east.