山东省绿色低碳循环发展评价研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of Green Low-Carbon Cycle Development in Shandong Province

绿色低碳是实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的重要途径,也是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的必然要求。科学评价山东省绿色低碳循环发展水平,对推动山东省高质量发展先行区建设具有重要意义。从经济社会发展、绿色发展、低碳发展、循环发展4个层面构建了评价体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型对山东省2001-2021年绿色低碳循环发展水平进行了综合评价和分层评价。结果表明:综合评价中,山东省绿色低碳循环发展水平整体呈阶段性上升趋势,可分为稳定上升阶段(2001-2004年)、波动式上升阶段(2005-2015年)和快速上升阶段(2016年以后)。在21年间,山东省绿色低碳循环发展水平提高了3.06倍,达到了较高发展水平。分层评价中,经济社会发展水平指数最高,其次是绿色发展水平和低碳发展水平,循环发展水平最低。经济社会发展水平指数迅速提升,增长幅度最大;绿色发展水平和循环发展水平指数呈缓慢上升趋势;低碳发展水平指数呈波动性上升趋势。基于评价结果,提出了构建低碳发展新格局、提高循环利用能力、注重生态环境保护等科学建议。

Green and low-carbon is an important way to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality,and it is also the inevitable requirement for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.Scientific evaluation of green,low-carbon,and circular development level of Shandong Province is of great significance for promoting the construction of pilot area with high-quality development in Shandong Province.An evaluation index system was constructed from four subsystems including economic society,green,low-carbon and cycle.Then the green,low-carbon,and circular development levels of the Shandong Province were evaluated comprehensively and stratified with entropy weight TOPSIS model from 2001 to 2021.The results showed that,according to the comprehensive evaluation,the green,low-carbon,and circular development levels of the Shandong Province showed a gradual upward trend from 2001 to 2021.It can be divided into steady upgrading stage(2001-2004),fluctuating upgrading stage(2005-2015)and rapid upgrading stage(after 2016).In the past 21 years,the level of green,low-carbon and circular development in Shandong Province had increased by 3.06 times,reaching a relatively high level of development.According to the stratified evaluation,the index of economic and social development was the highest,followed by the level of green development and low-carbon development,and the level of circular development was the lowest.The index of economic and social development level increased rapidly,and the growth rate was the largest,increasing by 10.02 times in 21 years.The index of green development level and circular development level showed a slow rising trend.The low-carbon development level index showed a fluctuating upward trend.Based on the results,some scientific suggestions were put forward,such as building a new pattern of low-carbon development,improving recycling capacity,and paying attention to ecological and environmental protection.