碳交易对低碳经济发展的影响及机制研究

Study on Impact and Mechanism of Carbon Trading on Development of Low-Carbon Economy

本文选取2006—2022年中国30个省份的面板数据,以双重差分法评估碳交易对低碳经济发展的影响及其区域差异性,并利用递归和调节效应模型探究碳交易对低碳经济的影响作用路径。研究结果表明:碳交易对低碳经济发展的影响有着显著促进作用且逐年增强;东部地区碳交易的低碳经济发展效应优于中部地区,而碳交易对西部地区低碳经济发展影响不显著;能源强度、国际贸易是碳交易推动低碳经济发展的两条路径,都具有部分正向中介效应。因此,可以在全国大力推行并逐步完善碳交易市场、制定鼓励能源技术升级的相应配套政策、提高低碳清洁型产品的进出口、继续推进区域低碳经济协调发展来提高低碳经济发展水平。

This paper selects the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2022 to evaluate the impact of carbon trading on low-carbon economic development and its regional differences by DID,and to explore the influence path of carbon trading on low carbon economy by using the recursive and moderating effect model.The results show that the impact of carbon trading on the development of low carbon economy has a significant promoting effect and increased year by year;the low-carbon economic development effect of carbon trading in eastern region is better than that in central region,while carbon trading has no significant impact on the development of low-carbon economy in western region;energy intensity and international trade are the two paths for carbon trading to promote the development of low-carbon economy,both of which have some positive intermediary effect.Therefore,the level of low-carbon economic development can be improved by vigorously promoting and gradually improving the carbon trading market throughout the country,formulating corresponding supporting policies to encourage the upgrading of energy technologies,increasing the import and export of low-carbon and clean products,and continuing to enhance the coherent advancement of the regional low-carbon economy.