2024年大豆产业发展趋势与政策建议

Development Trends and Policy Suggestions of Soybean Industry in 2024

文章对2023年大豆产业特点及存在问题进行总结,分析2024年大豆产业发展趋势,提出2024年大豆产业发展建议。结果表明,2023年我国大豆播种面积、单产和总产继续保持增长,总产连续2年创新高;国产大豆产量增长带来的结构性过剩及国内外大豆价格倒挂导致国内大豆市场价格走低;受国内消费市场恢复影响,大豆消费量上升,大豆进口量增幅较大。预计2024年国内大豆市场呈以下变动趋势:生产能力持续提升,大豆消费量保持相对稳定,大豆进口量继续保持高位,豆制品行业保持稳健增长,大豆产业技术进步对大豆自给率提升的贡献持续加大,大豆支持政策力度不减。建议继续以扩面积提单产为核心,多措并举提升大豆产能;深入实施饲用豆粕减量替代行动,合理调减大豆饲用需求;推动居民食物消费转型,缓解大豆供给压力;稳定大豆国际贸易,防范化解安全风险。

The article summarized the development and existing problems of the soybean industry in 2023,analyzed the development trend of the soybean industry in 2024,and proposed suggestions for the development of the soybean industry in 2024.The results showed China's soybean planted area,yield,and total production continued to grow in 2023,with the total production reaching a new high for two consecutive years.However,due to the structural surplus caused by the growth in domestic soybean production and the inverted domestic and international soybean prices,the domestic soybean market prices declined.Influenced by the recovery of the domestic consumption market,soybean consumption increased,and the import quantity of soybeans saw a significant increase.The domestic soybean market in 2024 was expected to experience the following trends:continuous improvement in production capacity,relatively stable soybean consumption,sustained high soybean import quantity,steady growth in the soybean product industry,a continuous increase in the contribution of technological advancements in the soybean industry to self-sufficiency,and continued strong support for soybean policies.It was recommended to continue focusing on expanding the planted area and increasing yield as the core strategy,adopting various measures to enhance soybean production capacity.Additionally,implementing actions to reduce the use of soybean meal in animal feed,appropriately reducing soybean feed demand,promoting the transformation of residents'food consumption,alleviating soybean supply pressure,and stabilizing international soybean trade to prevent and mitigate security risks.