基于随机演化博弈的新能源汽车发展策略研究

Research on the Development Strategy of New Nnergy Vehicles Based on Stochastic Evolutionary Game

新能源汽车的投入使用是减少空气污染的有效手段,长期以来一直是政府关注的焦点,但目前新能源汽车的产销量依旧较低,提高新能源汽车市场份额以解决环境污染和能源短缺问题迫在眉睫。首先建立汽车市场中政府和消费者的两方确定性演化博弈模型,其次通过引入高斯白噪声表示系统受不确定性因素的影响,建立随机演化博弈模型,通过模型分析得到随机扰动下该系统达到稳定状态的条件,最后通过Matlab软件进行数值仿真并根据仿真结果对促进新能源汽车发展提出相应的建议。研究表明:油价、零部件成本、电池价格等不确定性因素会对汽车市场中消费者和政府的两方博弈造成随机干扰,导致该系统演化出现不同程度的波动,同时会改变达到演化稳定状态所需要的时间;政府选择补贴的行为比消费者购买新能源汽车的行为对随机干扰强度σ更敏感;加强随机干扰强度,政府选择补贴和消费者选择购买新能源汽车的两种策略概率都能更快达到稳定状态。

The use of new energy vehicles is an effective means to reduce air pollution,and it has long been a focus of government attention.However,the current production and sales volume of new energy vehicles remains low,and how to increase the market share of new energy vehicles to solve the problems of environmental pollution and energy shortage is extremely urgent.Firstly,this paper establishes a two-sided deterministic evolutionary game model of the government and consumers in the automobile market.Secondly,it establishes a stochastic evolutionary game model by introducing Gaussian white noise to represent the system is affected by uncertainty factors,and obtains the conditions for the system to reach a steady state under stochastic perturbation through model analysis.Finally,it conducts numerical simulation by Matlab software,and puts forward corresponding suggestions for promoting the development of new energy vehicles according to simulation results.The study shows that uncertainties such as oil prices,part costs and battery prices will cause stochastic disturbance in the two-sided game between consumers and the government in the automobile market,which leads to varying degrees of fluctuations in the evolution of the system and changing the time needed to reach the evolutionary steady state,and the government's choice of subsidies is more sensitive to the intensity of stochastic disturbanceσthan the consumers'choice of purchasing new energy vehicles,and that both the probability of the two strategies of the government's choice of subsidies and the consumers'choice of purchasing new energy vehicles can reach the steady state more quickly by strengthening the intensity of stochastic disturbance.