基于改进AHP-FCE法的装配式建筑安全风险分析

Risk Analysis of Assembly Building's Safety Based on Improved AHP-FCE Method

为了解决当下装配式建筑存在的技术不成熟、人才储备不足等诸多问题所引起的安全问题,运用德尔菲法结合领域内专家意见选取人员、环境、管理、设备、技术5个一级指标和19个二级指标,基于改进AHP-FCE方法,构建装配式建筑安全风险评估体系,确定各指标影响系数,最后进行比对排序,提炼影响装配式建筑安全的关键因素,并实证分析了某地装配式建筑项目的安全风险。结果表明:根据改进AHP模型计算,发现施工组织设计及施工方案、预制构件质量、节点连接准确度在安全风险影响因素中是主要影响因素,所占比重分别为0.302、0.203、0.141;进一步结合FCE法,实证评价某实地项目处于较小风险水平。本文的研究多维度揭示了装配式建筑的安全风险因素,为实地项目安全管理提供了意见参考。

To solve the safety problems caused by immature technology,insufficient talent reserves and many other prob⁃lems with the current assembly building,we use the Delphi method combined with expert opinions to select five primary indicators of personnel,environment,management,equipment and technology,and their 19 secondary indicators to con⁃struct,based on the improved AHP-FCE method,a risk assessment system for assembly building safety.We determine the influence coefficients of each indicator and compare and rank them,refine the key factors that affect the safety of as⁃sembly buildings,and empirically analyze the risk of an assembly building project's safety in a certain place.The results show that,according to the improved AHP model calculation,the construction organization and design and the construc⁃tion plan,the prefabricated components'quality,and the accuracy of node connection are the major risk factors for as⁃sembly buildings,with proportions of 0.302,0.203,and 0.141 respectively.Further,we empirically evaluated a field project with the FCE method,and it's at a relatively lower risk level.Our study multi-dimensionally reveals the risk fac⁃tors for assembled buildings'safety,and provides references for the safety management of field projects.