外需疲软、出口受阻与中国制造业比重下滑

Weak Foreign Demand,Impeded Exports and the Declining Share of China's Manufacturing Sector

近年来中国制造业比重持续下滑,并在2011年之后出现加速态势。诸如产业结构转型等长期因素可能是中国制造业比重下滑的潜在动力,但是无法解释该比重在2011年后突然出现加速下滑。典型事实分析表明,中国制造业比重与外需变化呈现高度正相关关系,并且两者同时在2011年后出现明显下降。本文利用“偏离一份额”的实证方法,进一步从因果关系上发现2011年后外需疲软能够解释同期中国制造业比重降幅的50%以上。究其原因,2011年之前中国制造业出口的强劲增长有效缓解了其他长期因素对制造业比重的负向影响,但是2011年之后受欧债危机迅速恶化、主要经济体经济复苏低迷、各国贸易保护主义抬头等多种因素的影响,外需疲软导致中国出口受阻,由此导致中国制造业比重加速下降。同时由于空间经济联系,外需疲软的负向冲击在国内区域间传导并由此形成相互加强的互动机制。本文发现出口多元化能够显著平抑外需疲软的负面影响。

Manufacturing is the foundation and cornerstone of a country,and the lifeblood of national economy.In recent years,the proportion of China's manufacturing sector value-added to its CDP has been fast declining,raising concerns among scholars about premature deindustrialization.After reaching its peak in 2006,the proportion of China's manufacturing sector began a slow decline,by less than one percentage point on the whole until 2011.The decline accelerated significantly afterwards,and the figure dropped from 32%to 27%in the following decade.Understanding the reasons behind this rapid decline will help not only determine our stance on this issue,but also guide our response to it.Long-term factors,such as the natural evolution of the economy during industrial structural transformation and the outsourcing of service-related intermediate processes of serviceoriented manufacturing,might explain the gradual decline in the proportion of the manufacturing sector,but cannot explain the sudden rapid decline observed after 2011.This study interprets the accelerated decline in the proportion of China's manufacturing sector from the perspective of foreign demand,highlighting weak foreign demand as a crucial factor since 201l.Utilizing the“shift-share”empirical analysis method,we further established a causal relationship,revealing that weak foreign demand after 2011 could explain over 50%of the concurrent decline in the proportion of China's manufacturing sector.Before 201l,the growth in China's exports of manufactured goods effectively mitigated the negative impact of the long-term factors on the proportion of the manufacturing sector.However,the rapid deterioration of the Eurozone debt crisis after 201l,sluggish economic recovery in major economies,and the rise of trade protectionism hindered China's exports,leading to the accelerated decline in the proportion of the manufacturing industry.This paper empirically examines and further verifies that weak foreign demand leads to the flow of labor and production factors from the manufacturing sector to the service sector,confirming the main argument of this paper.Moreover,in terms of the impact mechanism,weak foreign demand hindered China's manufacturing exports,playing a significant role in the decline in the proportion of China's manufacturing sector.Furthermore,from the perspective of spatial spllover effects,the negative impact of weak foreign demand is transmitted among domestic regions due to spatial economic connections,thereby forming a mutually reinforcing interaction mechanism.Lastly,the study concludes that diversifying exports can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of weak foreign demand.In comparison to existing research,this study contributes in three aspects.Firstly,it focuses on the characteristic fact of the sudden acceleration in the decline of the proportion of China's manufacturing sector after 2011,offering an explanation from the angles of weak foreign demand and export obstacles.This helps clarify the reasons and nature of the rapid decline after 201l.Secondly,while existing literature mainly uses qualitative analysis methods,this study employs the“shift-share”method for a quantitative causal analysis of the reasons for the decline in the proportion of China's manufacturing industry.Lastly,the study empirically tests that export diversification can effectively mitigate the negative impact of weak foreign demand on the share of China's manufacturing sector,and provides strategies for stabilizing it.Policy implications of this study encompass three areas.First,we shall encourage enterprises to actively implement the export diversification strategy,reduce dependence on specific export markets,and effectively diversify the risks associated with changes in foreign demand.This will help mitigate the impact of external factors on China's manufacturing sector.Second,based on our research,China should continue to construct a new development dynamic with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the domestic and international cycles reinforcing each other.Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand,and boost domestic consumption and investment,thereby alleviating the negative impact of weak foreign demand on the proportion of China's manufacturing industry.Third,China should urge manufacturers to enhance their competitiveness by increasing investment in technological innovation and research and development,increasing the domestic value-added of exported products,and thereby maintaining the proportion of the manufacturing sector in the overall economic structure.