广东省船舶二氧化碳排放驱动因素与减排潜力

Driving Forces and Mitigation Potential of CO_(2) Emissions for Ship Transportation in Guangdong Province,China

船舶是广东省二氧化碳(CO_(2))的重要排放来源,研究广东省船舶CO_(2)排放的历史变化趋势、驱动因素和减排途径,可为广东省制定碳达峰与碳中和路径提供科学依据.采用排放因子法估算广东省船舶CO_(2)排放量,利用对数平均指数法(LMDI)识别排放驱动因素,并结合情景分析法探究船舶CO_(2)的减排途径.结果表明:(1)2006~2020年广东省船舶CO_(2)排放量从331.94万t增加至639.29万t,其中干散货船和集装箱船是导致排放增加的主要船型.(2)2006~2020年广东省船舶CO_(2)排放的关键正向驱动因素是运输强度(51%)和经济因素(49%),主要负向驱动因素是能源强度(93%)和货类结构(7%).(3)到2030年,如果广东省船舶运输保持当前政策(基准情景)发展,将无法实现碳达峰.(4)到2060年,同时考虑优化能源结构和降低能源强度(节能低碳情景),相比于基准情景有56.51%的CO_(2)减排潜力.可为广东省制定船舶航运行业碳达峰与碳中和管控策略提供科学依据.

Ships are important sources of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions in Guangdong Province.The study of historical evolutions,drivers,and projected pathways of CO_(2) emissions can provide scientific support for the development of carbon peaking and carbon neutral strategies in Guangdong Province.The emission factor method,log-average index(LMDI)method,and scenario analysis method were adopted to estimate CO_(2) emissions,identify the drivers,and explore the mitigation potential from ships in Guangdong Province,separately.The results showed that:①CO_(2) emissions from ships in Guangdong Province increased from 3.3194 million tons to 6.3929 million tons from 2006 to 2020,with dry bulk carriers and container ships being the main ship types causing the increase in emissions.②The positive drivers of CO_(2) emissions from ships in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2020 were transport intensity(51%)and economic factors(49%),and the negative drivers were energy intensity(93%)and cargo class structure(7%).③Carbon peaking would not be reached by 2030 if Guangdong Province maintains the current policy(baseline scenario)for ship transportation.④Simultaneous optimization of the energy structure and promotion of the energy intensity(energy-efficient and low-carbon scenario)had a 56.51%potential to reduce CO_(2) emissions from ships compared to the baseline scenario.This can provide scientific support for Guangdong Province to develop a carbon peaking and carbon neutral control strategy for the shipping industry.