高铁提速下异质型旅客空铁选择演化博弈

Evolutionary Game on the Air-Rail Choice of Heterogeneous Passengers Under Speed-up of High Speed Railway

在高速铁路提速可能对民航产生新竞争情境下,本研究结合旅客有限理性特点建立基于异质型旅客出行效用的空铁选择演化博弈模型,且以京沪高速铁路提速至400km/h和600km/h作为仿真算例,分析旅客空铁选择演化稳定策略和速度每提高50km/h演化稳定策略变化。结果表明:高速铁路设计速度越高,市场占有率更高,京沪高速铁路设计时速提速至400km/h,商务旅客、休闲旅客、平均旅客高铁出行分担率分别为0.21、0.53、0.49,若提速至600km/h,三类旅客高铁出行分担率分别为0.28、0.79、0.75。并发现京沪商务旅客对高铁速度弹性较休闲旅客更低;高铁每提速50km/h,商务旅客民航出行分担率降幅较小,休闲旅客、平均旅客的降幅则更明显;高速铁路提速边际效用递减。

Under the circumstance that the speed increase of high speed railway may produce new competition for civil aviation,this study combined the characteristics of passenger bounded rationality to establish a dynamic evolutionary game model of travel choice based on the travel utility of heterogeneous passengers,and the Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway speed increasing to 400km/h and 600km/h was used as simulation examples to analyze the evolution stability strategy of passenger travel by air-rail and the evolution stability strategy for every 50km/h increase in speed.The results show that the higher the design speed of the high speed railway,the higher its market share.If the design speed of the Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway is increased to 400km/h,the high speed railway travel sharing rates of business passengers,leisure passengers and average passengers are 0.21,0.53 and 0.49 respectively.If speed of high speed railway is increased to 600km/h,its travel sharing rates of the three types of passengers are 0.28,0.79,and 0.75 respectively.BeijingShanghai business travelers have lower flexibility in high speed railway speed than leisure travelers.For every 50km/h speed increase of high speed rail,the share rate of civil aviation for business passengers decreases less,while the share rate of civil aviation for leisure passengers and average passengers decreases more significantly The marginal utility of high speed railway decreases by speed increasing.