中国人口形势、挑战与应对策略

China's Population Status,Challenges,and Countermeasures

中国是世界上人口规模最大的国家,人口数量迄今仍居世界第一。自20世纪70年代末中国开始实施计划生育政策以来,生育率在较短时间内迅速下降,90年代初降至更替水平之下,总和生育率长期处于低水平。伴随着人口转变过程的进行,人口结构随之发生变化,劳动年龄人口数量和比例下降,老年人口比例提高,中国提前进入老龄化社会。与同等经济发展水平的国家相比,中国的老龄化速度更快,老龄化水平更高,是典型的“未富先老”。目前中国总人口已达峰,人口发展正在经历一个关键的转折。虽然中国人口受教育水平迅速提高,但与发达国家相比仍然较低。而大力提高生育意愿和生育水平、加大人力资本积累、完善养老和医疗保障制度以及健全养老服务体系,当是应对人口安全所面临挑战的良方。

China is the most populous country in the world;it still ranks No.1 worldwide by population.However,since the late 1970s,when China launched a nationwide family planning program,its fertility rate has declined rapidly within a relatively short period of time.Falling below the replacement level in the early 1990s,the total fertility rate in China has long been low.Corresponding to these changes,China has undergone structural shifts in population:its working-age population has decreased in both number and proportion,whereas the share of older people has increased.Thus,China has become an ageing society earlier than expected.Compared with other countries with the same level of economic development,the pace of China's population ageing is much faster.As a consequence,China is growing old before it becomes rich.Presently,China is undergoing a critical demographic transition.Its population has peaked;the education of its people has significantly improved but remained relatively weak compared with developed countries.To address the current challenges facing its population security,China should vigorously enhance its overall fertility willingness and rates,accelerate the accumulation of human capital,improve pension and healthcare programs,and refine the elderly care system.