信息不确定条件下的城市交通运行状态微观仿真研究

Micro simulation study on urban traffic operation status under information uncertainty

以问卷调查和现场调查获取的数据为基础,广泛运用非集计模型、SEM-Logit模型、生存分析法、比例风险回归模型和前景理论等模型方法,建立基于Multi-Agent(多智能体)的居民出行选择模型,研究信息不确定条件下的居民出行选择行为机理,识别信息确定和信息不确定条件下的区域交通流特征,完成城市交通运行状态微观仿真和评价,为城市管理部门制定和优化交通政策、缓解交通拥堵提供科学依据。

Based on the data obtained from the questionnaire survey and field survey,the project extensively uses the disaggregation model,SEM-Logit model,survival analysis,proportional risk regression model and prospect theory and other model methods to establish a resident travel choice model based on Multi-Agent(multi-agent),study the resident travel choice behavior mechanism under the condition of information uncertainty,and identify the regional traffic flow characteristics under the condition of information uncertainty and information uncertainty,complete the microscopic simulation and evaluation of urban traffic operation status,and provide scientific basis for urban management departments to formulate and optimize traffic policies and alleviate traffic congestion.