工业机器人应用对全球价值链分工地位的影响——来自跨国面板数据的经验证据

Impact of Industrial Robot Applications on GVC Division Position——Empirical Evidence from Cross-country Panel Data

在全球范围内日益增强的“机器换人”趋势,不仅促进当前全球化的生产组织方式和经营管理模式变革,还对全球价值链的动态演化产生重大影响。本文运用双边随机前沿分析法,测算全球价值链议价能力指数,选取2002—2019年71个经济体12个行业的面板数据,结合理论推导和实证分析,检验工业机器人应用对全球价值链分工地位的影响效应。研究结果表明,工业机器人应用对经济体各行业全球价值链分工地位有正向促进效用,且在一系列稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。究其机制,工业机器人应用通过提高全要素生产率和优化资源配置提高全球价值链分工地位。异质性分析结果表明,该效用在资本相对充裕、制度环境相对稳定的经济体和资本密集型行业上表现得更为明显。本文深化了对于工业机器人应用如何影响全球价值链分工地位的理解,为制造业智能化发展、现代化产业体系建设提供理论指导和政策参考。

The increasing trend of“machine replacement”globally will not only profoundly change the comparative advantage of each economy and transform the current global production organization and management modes,but also promote the dynamic evolution of the global value chain(GVC)and drive the change of the international industrial competition pattern.Based on cross-country data,this paper studies the effect of industrial robot applications on the GVC division position of various industries.This paper uses the bilateral stochastic frontier analysis model and the CEPII BACI six-digit coded trade data and data from WDI from 2002 to 2019 to measure the industry-level GVC bargaining power index of 71 economies.A higher index indicates a higher GVC division position in the industry.After matching the calculated index with the industrial robot data from the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)and the control variable data from WGI,WDI,and UNIDO databases,the cross-country three-dimensional panel data of 12 industries in 71 economies from 2002 to 2019 are obtained.The multi-task model is constructed and the theoretical model derivation results are combined with empirical analyses to test the effect of industrial robot applications on the GVC division position.The findings reveal that industrial robot applications can promote the GVC division position of various industries.This conclusion is robust and remains valid after a series of robustness tests.Based on the multi-task model,it indicates that industrial robot applications can elevate the GVC division position by improving the total factor productivity and the efficiency of labor and capital allocation when the usage reaches a certain threshold.The mechanism analysis shows that industrial robot applications can improve total factor productivity and resource allocation efficiency of various industries to elevate the GVC division position of various industries.Furthermore,the positive promotion of industrial robots to the GVC division position is mainly reflected in capital-intensive industries with relatively abundant capital and relatively stable institutional environments.The possible contribution of this paper lies in the following aspects.It uses the bilateral stochastic frontier analysis method to construct the bargaining power index of GVC,which provides a new way to calculate the GVC division position and enriches its measurement index.Combined with a multi-task model and empirical tests,it explores the impact of industrial robot applications on the GVC division position from the medium level and offers a policy direction for promoting China’s industry to continuously move towards the middle and high positions of the GVC.The findings deepen the understanding of how the application of industrial robots affects the GVC division position and provide theoretical guidance and policy reference for the intelligent development of the manufacturing industry and the construction of modern industrial systems.