摘要
In this study,civil gas energy accidents reported by the China Gas Network and related organizations from 2012 to 2021 were collected,and a comprehensive multidimensional correlation analysis was conducted considering factors such as accident timing,geography,causes,and casualties.The results identified July and August,Mondays and Sundays,and the morning,mid-day,and evening cooking times as the high-incidence months,days,and times for gas accidents,respectively.Gas accidents were found to occur more frequently in eastern coastal areas,provincial capitals,and larger cities,while residential and construction sites were identified as high-risk areas for gas accidents.Explosions were the most prevalent type of gas accident,followed by leaks,fires,and poisoning.Third-party construction and valve issues were identified as the primary factors contributing to gas leakage,whereas cooking was identified as the most common ignition source.An analysis of the Pearson correlation coefficient indicated a significant correlation among the gas accident factors.Moreover,a time-series prediction model was developed to forecast gas accidents in China,with the results demonstrating fluctuating gas accidents.This study proposes targeted preventive measures in terms of publicity,education,equipment,and facilities to provide scientific support to government units to improve civil gas energy security measures.
基金
The authors appreciate the financial support from the opening project of the State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology(Beijing Institute of Technology)(No.KFJJ23-19 M)
the Beijing Nova Program Interdisciplinary Cooperation Project(No.Z2111000021211)
the opening project of Tianjin Key Laboratory of Fire Safety Technology(No.2023TKLFST06).
