商事制度改革与就业增长

Commercial System Reform and Employment Growth

近年来,中国新增就业不断增加,经济增速连续放缓,呈现出明显的非一致性,本文从商事制度改革的视角解释这一现象。理论研究结果表明,当商事制度改革降低市场准入成本后,将有利于规模较小的边际企业进入市场并创造就业岗位,在数量上表现为就业增加,在结构上表现为企业平均员工规模减小。实证研究结果与理论预期一致,商事制度改革使得城镇民营部门就业增长率显著提高了3.5个百分点,新增企业平均员工规模缩小一半。进一步研究发现,由于改革后新增的主要是小微和民营企业,这些企业比较脆弱、退出率高,所以短期内对经济增长的贡献比较有限。这些发现是稳健的,揭示了“保企业”就是“保就业”,企业成长是关键。

In recent years,the urban newly increased employment in China has continued to grow,but the economic growth rate has continued to slow down,showing obvious inconsistency.This study explains this phenomenon from the perspective of Commercial System Reform.Enterprises are the micro-foundation of employment.However,before 2012,it was not easy for Chinese enterprises to legally enter the market.According to the World Bank Doing Business Report,enterprises must pay at least 38 days and US$149,which is an institutional cost that new entrants must pay.At this time,it only took 0.5 days to start a business in New Zealand,which is the global frontier practice.It is undeniable that for entrepreneurs with high capabilities who plan to set up large enterprises,this is not the main cost that affects the decision-making of enterprise entry,but it is an obstacle for small and private enterprises to enter the market.Those who cannot pay this institutional cost cannot legally enter the market.In 2012,the Commercial System Reform began to be partially piloted and the cost of market access was continuously reduced.By 2018,it only took 8.6 days and US$35 to register a company,which was 1/4 of the cost before the reform.This means that with the reduction of institutional costs,small and private enterprises that were previously unable to enter the market can now legally enter the market,and the number of enterprises will increase accordingly.We call these small and private enterprises“marginal firms.”When the reform continues to advance and institutional costs continue to decrease,marginal firms can continuously enter the market and directly create new job opportunities.However,these marginal firms are small in scale with high exit rates;thus,their contribution to economic growth is relatively limited.We model this logic theoretically.The model indicates that the effect of Commercial System Reform on employment growth comprises two aspects—the“quantity effect”and the“scale effect.”The quantity effect refers to the increasing number of small businesses founded because of the lowered institutional costs,and the scale effect refers to the decreased size of marginal firms entering the market.This study empirically verifies the above theoretical inference.Based on panel data on 238 cities from 2005 to 2017 and field survey data of 4,160 companies across the country in 2018,this study empirically obtained four main findings.First,in terms of quantity,the implementation of the Commercial System Reform significantly increased the employment growth rate of the urban private sector by 3.5 percentage points,while the employment growth rate of the nonprivate sector did not change significantly.Second,in terms of structure,the implementation of Commercial System Reform has increased the proportion of small enterprises among new enterprises by about 22 percentage points;the proportion of private enterprises has increased by about 13 percentage points;and the average size of new enterprises has dropped by about half.Third,in terms of mechanism,the Commercial System Reform has significantly reduced the institutional costs for enterprises to deal with the government,e.g.,the number of times an enterprise has to go to the government for administrative approval has been reduced by two times.Fourth,the reform has significantly increased the exit rate of enterprises by 0.2 percentage points.Therefore,this study theoretically and empirically verifies that marginal firms such as small and private enterprises entered the market after the reform and directly created new jobs.This is why urban newly increased employment continued to hit record highs from 2012 to 2018.However,these marginal firms are smaller in scale and more likely to exit the market when faced with negative shocks.Therefore,their role in promoting economic growth is relatively limited in the short term,thus unable to reverse the slowdown in economic growth.