防范“脱实向虚”的另一面:契税税率下调与企业房产投机

Another Aspect of Micro"Shifting from Real to Fictitious Sector":Reduction of Deed Tax Rate and Real Estate Speculation of Enterprises

防范企业“脱实向虚”是推动中国经济高质量发展的重要抓手。本文以《契税暂行条例》和《契税法》授权地方政府的税率自由裁量调整作为准自然实验,研究发现下调契税税率可以显著抑制实体企业的房产投机行为,尤其是对融资较紧张、税费负担较重、股价风险较高、市盈率较低的企业和营商环境平庸、土地财政依赖度较高的地区。作用机制包括“蓄水池”效应和替代效应,下调契税税率降低了企业的预期经营风险和财务风险,并提升了实业-房地产投资的相对报酬。房产投机收敛后(“脱虚”),企业资本配置趋于优化(“向实”),下调契税税率挤进了企业创新投资和设备投资并挤出了寻租支出。以上结论为中国促进房地产与实体经济的均衡发展提供了决策参考。

The capital allocation of rational enterprises always trade-offs between real and fietitious eonomies.Corporate investment has been shifting from the real to the fietitious sector in recent years.There is a large amount of capital trapped in the fietitious sector,which corresponds to a continuous decline in the industrial investment rate.Due to the coronavirus pandemie and international trade conflicts,many industrial enterprises have reduced their main businesses to stop loss and preserve assets through virtualization.The Chinese government has promised to guide enterprises to return to the real ecoпomy and prevent economic stagnation.However,the fictitious economy includes not only finance but also real estate,which has absorbed a largc amount of funds.There werc 2,389 listed companies holding real estate as at the end of 2021,accounting for approximately 51%.with a total investment of 4.05 trillion yuan.In addition to financialization,this is another manifestation of China's economy shifting from the real to the fietitious sector.The 14th Five-Year Plan propоsed to use tax policies to regulate the real estatc market,which means supporting residential demand and curbing speculative demand.This article uscs the discretionary adjustment of deed tax rates by local governments in China as a quasi-natural experiment to explore the impaet of deed tax euts on corporate real estate speculation and analyze the effectiveness of tax cuts in guiding micro capital allocation und bulancing developments of the real estate market and the real cconomy.Our study makes the following conclusions.(1)Reducing the deed tax rate(RDTR)can significantly suppress corporate real estate speculation,especially financialized real estate investment.We conduct a series of robustness tests,including parallel trend test and placebo test,using other regression methods,replacing variables,and excluding compctitivc hypothesis.(2)Thc impact of RDTR on real estate speculation is more evident in enterprises with tighter financing constraints.heavier tax.and fee burden:higher stock price risk;or lower price-earning ratio,as well as in areas with poorer business environment or higher dependence oп"land finance."(3)RDTR mainly affects corporate real estate speculation through the"reservoir effect"and substitution effect.Specifically,RDTR reduces the expected operational risk and internal financial risk of industrial enterprises and increases the return on investment of the real economy relative to real estate.(4)RDTR encourages enterprises to optimize capital allocation by increasing innovation and equipment investment and reducing rent-seeking expenses.This study makes the following threc contributions to the literature.(1)Thc taxes levied on real estate in Chinese Mainland include not only property tax for owners but also deed tax for buyers.It has a significant financial contribution and the reform included a wide range of regions.Scholars have generally been enthusiastic about property taxes,but the micro effects of deed tax policies have not been discussed yet.This article takes the discretionary adjustments of local deed tax rates as a quasi-natural experiment.which is a new approach to rescarch on the relationship between tax and real estate in China.(2)China urgently needs to reverse the economic trend of"shifting from real to fietitious sector."The existing studies extensively focused on the excessive financialization of industrial enterprises,while overlooking their speculation in real estate.Did RDTR build a"tax depression"to attraet more funds to the reul estate market?This article provides direct empirical evidence,which is meaningful for China to regulate the realestate market and support the development of the real economy.(3)This article reveals that the purpose of enterprise speculation in real cstate is to avoid risks.pursue profits,and identify enterprises und regions where RDTR can have an inhibitory effect,which is helpful for the targeted design of industrial policies.