美国霸权及其秩序的未来

The Future of American Hegemony and Its Order

进入21世纪,特别是在第二个十年里,美国的全球霸权遭遇到来自中国在政治、经济、外交、科技等多方面的竞争压力,同时美国在国内的诸多制度性缺陷也进一步展露,如政治极化、中产阶级塌陷、社会失序、价值迷失等问题。美国霸权的走向及其主导下的国际秩序的变迁再次成为一个值得讨论的国际政治经济学问题。美国对全球体系的控制能力主要体现在军事、金融、资源、产业、思想和国际制度六大方面,它们共同构成了第二次世界大战之后美国霸权的根基。通过外交—融资—创新的三维分析框架对美国霸权地位变化进行分析和评估可以看出,美国霸权的根基正在遭遇一系列的侵蚀,但是,随着霸权国自身因为遭遇挑战者而产生“觉醒”意识,霸权国正在采取一系列的霸权护持行动,新兴崛起国将面临越来越大的崛起困境和崛起压力。因此,未来的国际秩序将长期陷入一种相对动荡和不安的时期。

Entering the 2lst century,especially in the second decade,the global hegemonic status of the United States has faced competitive pressures from China in politics,economy,diplomacy,and technology.Meanwhile,many institutional deficiencies in the United States at home have also been exposed,such as political polarization,the collapse of the middle class,social disorder,and the loss of values.This article holds that the U.S.ability to control the global system is mainly reflected in six aspects:military,finance,resources,industry,ideology,and international institutions,which together constitute the foundation of American hegemony after World War II.On this basis,this article proposes a three-dimensional theoretical framework of diplomacy-financinginnovation to analyze and evaluate the changes in the hegemonic status of the United States.Based on this analytical framework,this article argues that while the foundation of American hegemony is undergoing a series of erosions,the hegemonic power is generating an"awakening"consciousness and is taking actions to defend its hegemonic status.Therefore,the rising power will face increasing difficulties and pressures and the future international order will fall into a relatively turbulent and uneasy period for a long time.