国家间商品贸易的武器化与反武器化

The Weaponized Interdependence and Anti-weaponization of the Interdependent in International Commodity Trade

“相互依存武器化”滥觞于世界政治经济秩序的失范和重构之时。当地缘政治竞争重新成为国际关系的主导,其不可避免地与全球化所打造的相互依存网络发生冲撞。相互依存的不对称性所隐含的结构性权力由此被重新发掘,并被加以利用。这一理论是依据无形资产(互联网和金融支付系统)的武器化运用而提出,但实际上,有形商品贸易的武器化更为普遍,中国更是其中的受害者。尽管不同类型商品贸易的武器化在实施主体、权力来源、手段和影响等方面存在不同特点,但都主要依赖阻塞效应。与无形资产不同的是,商品贸易的武器化虽涉及利用相关信息寻找对手的“阿喀琉斯之踵”,但更强调突击性狙击对对手国经济的破坏效应。同时,其成功的要件在于,商品可替代性低、存在相互依存的不对称性、国内政企的紧密协作和稳固的国家间联盟。反武器化的实践同样应基于此找出可能的风险点并有针对性进行预防和去风险。

"Weaponized Interdependence"(WI)has been taking place at a time when the world political economy has eventually slipped into disorder.The WI theory was developed largely based on the weaponization of intangible assets(the Internet and financial payment systems),but in fact,weaponization of tangible commodity trade is more common,and China is particularly a victim of that.Although the weaponization of different types of commodity trade has different characteristics in terms of implementation,actors,sources of power,means and impacts,they all mainly rely on"chokepoint effects."Different from intangible assets,although the weaponization of commodity trade involves using relevant information to find the rivalry's"Achilles'heel,"WI of commodity trade has placed more emphasis on the destructive effect of"attacking"the opponent's economy by surprise.Meanwhile,to make a success,the use of WI necessitates the following preconditions:low substitutability of goods,asymmetry of interdependence,close collaboration between domestic government and enterprises,and solid interstate alliances.The practice of anti-weaponization should also be based on these preconditions and should incorporate measures of identifying and preventing possible risks.