中国式现代化的产业结构变迁特征与推进路径

Characteristics of Industrial Structure Change of Chinese-style Modernization and Its Path of Promotion

产业结构的现代化是中国式现代化的重要基础。本文从结构与技术相融合的视角构建产业结构现代化分析框架,以结构转型为条件、以技术赶超作为其增长机制,通过国际比较分析产业结构面向现代化变迁的标准模式与各国偏离。研究发现,中国的产业结构现代化变迁特征与前沿国家和赶超成功国家一致,即结构转型过程中目标部门的技术向前沿收敛,而赶超失败国家在结构转型的同时没有出现明显的技术进步,即技术赶超相对停滞。相较于日韩,中国在人均GDP较低水平出现了去工业化迹象,尽管这与拉美国家过早去工业化的性质不同,但是如何在工业就业占比下降情形下维持工业增加值占比稳定,仍然是我国在现代化过程中需要高度把握的结构调整方向。与发展中大国的比较发现,印度具有服务业导向的结构转型特点,而中国的产业结构现代化演进更多体现工业主导的特征,这与赶超成功国家基本相似。国际比较对中国的产业结构现代化具有重要启示:在驱动结构与技术的二维演化时,务必保持国家技术进步的动态向上趋势,从而才能规避产业结构变迁过程中的发展陷阱。

The modernization of industrial structure is an important foundation for Chinese-style Modernization.This paper constructs an analytical framework for the modernization of industrial structure from the perspective of the integration of structure and technology,with structural transformation as the condition and technological catch-up as the growth mechanism.It analyzes the standard pattern of industrial structure modernization and the deviation of each country through international experience comparison.It is found that the characteristics of China's industrial structure modernization are consistent with those of frontier countries and successful catching-up countries,with the technology of target sectors converging to the frontier in the process of structural transformation.In contrast,the failed catch-up countries did not show significant technological progress along with structural transformation,and technological catch-up was relatively stagnant.Compared to Japan and South Korea,China shows signs of de-industrialization at a lower level of GDP per capita.Although this is different from the premature de-industrialization of Latin American countries in nature,how to maintain a stable share of industrial value-added in the face of a declining share of industrial employment still is a direction of structural adjustment that needs to be given high priority in China's modernization process.Comparing with large developing countries reveals that India is characterized by service-oriented structural transformation,while China's industrial structure modernization evolution is more industrial-led,which is basically similar to that of the successful catching-up countries.International comparisons have important implications for the modernization of China's industrial structure:when driving the two-dimensional evolution of structure and technology,it is important to maintain the dynamic upward trend of the country's technological progress,so as to avoid development traps in the process of industrial structure change.