基于大气环境监测数据的工业园区污染物排放总量实时反演核算方法

Real-time estimation of atmospheric pollutant emission in industrial park with environment monitoring data

工业园区既是重要的社会经济发展单元,也是主要的大气污染排放单元。综合利用环境监测数据和数值模拟方法,开展工业园区污染排放的动态精准管控,有助于提升工业园区大气环境管控效果,统筹园区经济发展与环境优化。以某工业园区为例,探索了基于环境监测数据,利用高斯大气扩散模型和源参数反演技术,实现小时级别的园区大气污染物排放总量反演核算的技术可行性。结果表明:1)监测站点布设方案显著影响反演核算精度,网格化布点方案有效提高了反演核算精度;2)监测数据的随机误差显著影响反演核算精度,在简化布点方案下,园区监测站点对VOCs质量浓度监测误差应控制在0.1 mg·m^(-3)以下;3)园区总排放强度对反演核算精度存在一定影响,总排放量大的园区反演核算精度较高;4)反演核算精度与实时气象条件有关,当气象条件不适宜模型模拟污染物扩散或不适宜监测站点对污染物分布进行有效采样时,可能造成反演精度的下降。以上结果表明,在工业园区开展基于环境监测数据的大气污染物排放总量核算研究具有可行性,但需要在监测站点布设方案比选、监测站点数据质量控制等方面进行精细化管理,以达到最优反演核算效果。

The industrial park is not only important for economic growth but also a major unit of atmospheric pollutant emission.Precise management of the atmospheric pollutant emission in real-time by utilizing the environment monitoring data and numerical simulation models may promote the capability of controlling air quality of industrial park.This work,taking an industrial park as an example,explores the possibility of hourly inversing the amount of pollutant emission with the air station monitor data as well as the gaussian dispersion model.The numerical experiments indicated several results:1)The monitor-station layout planning affected the accuracy of the estimation significantly,grid-layout planning increased the estimation accuracy dramatically.2)The random detection errors of the monitor-stations influenced the estimation accuracy,with simplify-grid planning,the random detection errors should be controlled below 0.1 mg·m^(-3).3)The total emission intensity of the industrial park influenced the overall accuracy,high intensity led to high relative accuracy.4)The estimation accuracy can be affected by the real-time meteorological environment.When meteorological conditions are not suitable for pollutant diffusion it may cause a decrease in inversion accuracy due to the low efficiency in the pollutant distribution sampling by the air monitors.Based on the conclusions above,this study supports the feasibility of estimation the amount of air pollutant emission in real-time based on the air monitor data.But several aspects such as the station layout planning,data quality assurance should be carefully designed and controlled to get optimized accuracy.