工业园区碳排放核算与因素分解实证分析

Empirical analysis of carbon emission accounting and factor decomposition in industrial park

工业园区贡献了全国过半的工业产值和近31%的碳排放量,是我国应对气候变化实现双碳目标的重要战场,然而当前尚未形成针对工业园区碳排放核算的规范体系。本研究在温室气体清单编制现有方法基础上,构建针对工业园区的碳排放核算体系,并利用此核算体系对重庆市某工业园区2016—2020年碳排放量进行了核算实证研究,且通过LMDI分解模型分析该园区碳排放变动的影响因素。结果表明,该园区在“十三五”期间碳排放呈逐年增长趋势,化石燃料燃烧是园区内最主要的碳排放源,占比达83.5%,化工行业碳排放在该园区所有行业中占比最大(68.9%),园区碳排放的主要驱动因素是能源强度,效应贡献率为64.7%。据此,本研究提出了针对该园区的降碳路径,并通过实证分析后探讨了工业园区碳排放核算方法体系的规范化问题,以期为我国工业园区的碳减排工作提供参考。

Industrial parks contribute more than half of the country's industrial output value and about 31%of carbon emissions,making them a crucial battleground in China's pursuit of its dual carbon goals to address climate change.However,a standardized accounting system for carbon emissions in industrial parks has not yet been established.Building upon existing methods for greenhouse gas inventory compilation.This study constructed a carbon emission accounting system tailored to industrial parks.It calculated the carbon emissions of a certain industrial park in Chongqing from 2016 to 2020 and employed the LMDI decomposition model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission changes in the park.The findings indicated that the carbon emissions of the park exhibited an increasing trend during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period.Fossil fuel combustion emerged as the primary carbon emission source within the park,accounting for 83.5%of emissions.Among all industries within the park,the chemical industry contributed the most significant portion to carbon emissions(68.9%).Energy intensity emerged as the driving factor for carbon emissions in the park,with a contribution rate of 64.7%.Based on these findings,this study proposed a carbon reduction path for the park and discussed the standardization of carbon emission accounting methods for industrial parks through empirical analysis.This research provides a scientific reference for China's industrial park emission reduction efforts,addressing the need for standardized methodologies in this critical area.