新疆塔里木河流域土地利用变化对碳排放的影响:考虑能源消耗中介效应和绿色科技调节效应

Impacts of land use change on carbon emissions in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang:considering the mediating effect of energy consumption and the regulatory effect of green technology

深入研究土地利用变化对碳排放的影响对于地区管控土地利用、制定碳减排政策意义深远。以新疆塔里木河流域内5地州2000—2020年土地利用变化为出发点,系统阐述土地利用变化、能源消耗与绿色科技对碳排放的影响机理,将土地利用变化作为核心解释变量,以能源消耗为中介变量和绿色科技为调节变量,实证检验塔里木河流域土地利用变化影响碳排放的路径。结果表明:研究期内塔河流域生态用地减少7933 km^(2),建设用地增加1370 km^(2),因其面积变化产生的碳排放效应分别为13.58×10~4、1327.71×10~4 tC·a^(-1);基于模型发现生态用地增加对碳排放有抑制作用,建设用地增加对碳排放有促进作用,且后者影响程度大于前者;能源消耗在建设用地影响碳排放过程中起中介作用,其中介效应大于建设用地直接效应;绿色科技有降低能源消耗中介效应的调节作用。应构建土地—城市—科技—能源四元协同碳减排机制以促进地区土地利用低碳发展。

Thoroughly researching the influence of land use changes on carbon emissions bears significant implications for regional land use management and the development of carbon emission reduction policies.Commencing with the land use change in five prefectures within the Xinjiang Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2020,this paper systematically elucidated the mechanistic influence of land use change,energy consumption,and green technology on carbon emissions.Taking land use change as the core explanatory variable,energy consumption as the mediating variable and green technology as the moderating variable,this paper empirically tested the path of land use change affecting carbon emissions in the Tarim River Basin.The results showed that during the research period,the ecological land in the Tarim River Basin decreased by 7933 km^(2),and the carbon emission effect was 135800 tC·a^(-1);the construction land increased by 1370 km^(2),and the carbon emission effect was 13277100 tC·a^(-1);Based on a model analysis,it was found that the increase of ecological land had an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,and the increase of construction land had a promoting effect on carbon emissions,and the latter had a greater impact than the former.Energy consumption serves as an intermediary in the process through which construction land influenced carbon emissions,and its intermediary effect was greater than the direct effect of construction land.Green technology had a moderating effect on reducing the mediating effect of energy consumption.To promote low-carbon development in regional land use,a four-element collaborative carbon emission reduction mechanism encompassing land,urban,technology,and energy should be established.