基于数理统计和数值分析的污水处理厂处理效果评估方法

Evaluation Method of WWTPs’Treatment Effectiveness Based on Mathematical Statistics and Numerical Analysis

污水处理厂是污水处理工作的主要承担者,对其处理效果进行客观、科学地评估具有重要的现实意义。在比较法和保证率法的基础上,提出基于数理统计和数值分析的污水处理厂处理效果评估方法。该方法采用数学期望、置信区间(α=0.1)和变异系数表征平均水平、主要变化区间和达标稳定性,采用正态分布描述总体情况,采用正态曲线拟合频数分布并获得概率密度函数,最终通过求解概率密度函数对发展趋势进行定量预测。结合案例展示了该方法的实操方法,结果显示:新方法可用于多个目标水厂、多个考核指标之间的平行分析。此外,对该方法在污水处理厂优化调度与设计、超标风险分析等领域的应用进行了展示。

Wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs)undertake the major task of sewage treatment.So it is of great practical significance to evaluate their treatment effect objectively and scientifically.On the basis of comparison method and guarantee rate method,the evaluation method of WWTPs’treatment effect based on mathematical statistics and numerical analysis was proposed.First,mathematic expectation,confidence interval(α=0.1)and coefficient of variation were applied to characterize the average level,major range of change and stability to reach the designed standard respectively in this method.Second,the method adopted normal distribution to describe the general information.Third,the method adopted normal curve to fit the frequency distribution and obtain probability density function.Finally,the development trend was quantitatively predicted based on the solution of the probability density function in this method.The practical operation of this method was demonstrated in combination with cases.Results indicated that the new method could be used for the parallel analysis between multi objective WWTPs and multi assessment indices.Besides,the application of this method in the optimization of scheduling and design,risk analysis of excessive effluent quality in WWTPs was demonstrated.