中国人造板出口的本地市场效应研究

The Home Market Effect of China s Wood-based Panels Exports

以本地市场效应为理论视角,在贸易引力模型的基础上构建中国人造板出口贸易的本地市场效应模型,基于FAOSTAT数据库、UN Comtrade数据库、WDI数据库等1995—2020年中国与48个出口贸易伙伴国的面板数据,分析中国人造板出口贸易是否存在本地市场效应,是否存在时期差异性、市场差异性,并考察传统要素禀赋的影响。结果显示,中国人造板出口同时存在相对需求规模和相对需求层次引起的本地市场效应,国内市场是基础动力,兼具出口导向型特征,在不同收入水平贸易市场存在差异性,受劳动力禀赋影响较大;规模经济效应是中国人造板本地市场效应产生的根本原因,集聚经济效应对本地市场效应发挥重要作用,产品质量档次提升和技术创新能够有力促进本地市场效应。为了充分发挥本地市场效应,应对国际市场变化和实现国内国际双循环相互促进,应坚持扩大内需战略,强化超大规模市场优势;不断淘汰落后产能,充分发挥规模经济效应;积极进行产业园区建设,促进产业集聚效应;发挥资本纽带作用,继续提升产品质量档次,加强技术创新,从基于劳动力禀赋的数量扩张型低价竞争模式转型升级为高附加值的质量档次取胜的高质量发展模式。

⑴Background——China is the world s largest consumer and largest exporter of wood-based panels.As the largest consumer of wood-based panels,does China s super-large domestic market promote export trade?How to rely on the super-large domestic market to promote export trade?The home market effect test can answer whether the domestic market has a promoting effect on export trade,and the home market effect theory can also explain the reasons of the home market effect and explore the paths for China s wood-based panels to play the advantage of the super-large domestic market and promote export trade.⑵Methods——Taking the home market effect as the theoretical perspective,this paper constructed the home market effect model of China s wood-based panels export trade based on the trade gravity model.The research data mainly came from FAOSTAT database,UN Comtrade database,WDI database,CEPII database and EIA website.Based on the panel data of China and 48 export trading partners from 1995 to 2020,this paper analyzed whether there were home market effect,period differences and market differences in China s wood-based panels export trade,and discussed the influence of traditional factor endowments.⑶Results——During the period from 1995 to 2020,there were both home market effects caused by relative demand scale and home market effects caused by relative demand level in China s wood-based panels.The scale economy effect was the root cause of the home market effect of China s wood-based panels,the agglomeration economy effect played an important role,and the improvement of product quality and technological innovation effectively promoted the home market effect.The driving force of China s wood-based panel exports was constantly evolving.The domestic market was the basic driving force,it showed the transformation from the domestic demand scale to the domestic demand level,and had the characteristics of export orientation,and was significantly affected by the scale and level of demand in the trade market.In trade markets with different income levels,there were differences in home market effect.The product quality played a key role,and improving the product quality was conducive to exerting the home market effect caused by the relative demand level.In terms of traditional factor endowments,China s wood-based panels export was greatly affected by labor endowments and negatively affected by capital endowments,but it was less affected by forest resources endowments.However,with the aging of population and the rise of labor costs in China,the low-cost advantage based on labor endowments was constantly being lost,and China s wood-based panels need to gradually transform and upgrade from the low-price competition model of quantity expansion to the high quality development model of high added value and high product quality.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——In order to give full play to the home market effect,cope with the changes in the international market and realize the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles,the following policy recommendations are put forward:First,stick to the strategy of expanding domestic demand,build a strong domestic market from the scale and level of demand,and strengthen the advantages of the super-large domestic market.Second,accelerate supply-side reform,continue to eliminate backward production capacity,increase the scale of single-line production,encourage mergers and restructuring,focus on supporting large enterprises,and give full play to the effects of economies of scale.Third,actively carry out the construction of industrial parks,encourage various forms of collaboration,share resources,knowledge,technology and management experience,and give play to the industrial agglomeration effect.Fourth,continue to improve product quality and implement branding strategy.Fifth,continue to strengthen technological innovation,and vigorously popularize and apply advanced equipment and technology.Sixth,attract and promote more capital to enter the industry and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.