景德镇一次罕见连续性大暴雨过程分析

Analysis of a Heavy Rainstorm Process in Jingdezhen

为了更好预报大暴雨过程,利用常规地面、高空观测资料、WebGis雷达拼图STI产品、ncep日平均再分析资料,对2021年8月中旬,景德镇地区出现的一次罕见大暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明,此次降水过程持续时间长,强度大,同期降水位居景德镇历史首位。强降水是在有利环境场中产生的,暖强迫下的风速辐合是造成11—12日降水产生的主要原因;13—14日地面冷空气南下,大气斜压性增强,触发对流性强降水,导致连续性大暴雨天气的发生。雷达拼图上组合STI产品表明新老单体移向一致,重复经过景德镇和乐平市区,造成列车效应,最终导致大暴雨。副高较常年同期明显偏南、冷空气活动偏强偏南,导致冷暖空气强烈对峙,是造成景德镇中旬连续性大暴雨的主要原因。

In order to predict the heavy rainstorm process,a rare heavy rainstorm process occurred in Jingdezhen in the middle of August 2021 was analyzed by using conventional ground and upper air observation data,WebGis radar puzzle STI products,and ncep daily average reanalysis data.The results showed that the precipitation process has a long duration and high intensity,and the precipitation in the same period ranks first in the history of Jingdezhen.Strong precipitation occurs in favorable environmental fields,and the convergence of wind speeds under warm forcing is the main cause of precipitation from November to December;From 13th to 14th,the cold air on the ground moved southward,and the baroclinicity of the atmosphere increased,triggering convective heavy rainfall,leading to the occurrence of continuous heavy rainstorm.The combination of STI products on the radar puzzle shows that the new and old monomers move in the same direction,repeatedly passing through Jingdezhen and Leping urban areas,causing the train effect and eventually leading to heavy rainstorm.Compared with the same period of the year,the subtropical high is obviously south,and the cold air activity is strong and south,leading to a strong confrontation between cold and warm air,which is the main reason for the continuous heavy rainstorm in the middle of Jingdezhen.