基于灰色系统模型的县域使用林地影响因素分析及需求预测

Analysis and Prediction of County Forestry Land Demands based on Grey System Model

为分析县域尺度上使用林地的影响因素,基于灰色系统模型选取宁洱县“十三五”期间林地管理及社会经济数据,研究林地资源供需关系及影响因素。结果表明,林地需求与县域GDP、人口密度、空闲地面积、建成区面积的关联度均大于0.6,说明这4个指标对林地需求产生了显著影响。通过预测和拟合计算得到后验差比值为0.2423,结果具有一定可信性,可为林地管理提供参考。

In order to analyze the influencing factors of forest land use at the county level,this article selects forest land management and socio-economic data from Ning’er county during the 13th Five Year Plan period based on a grey system model,and studies the supply-demand relationship and influencing factors of forest land resources.The results show that the correlation between forest land demand and county GDP,population density,idle land area and built-up area is greater than 0.6,indicating that these four indicators have a significant impact on forest land demand.Through prediction and fitting calculation,the posterior difference ratio is 0.2423,and the results have certain credibility,which can provide reference for forest land management.