一种基于故障树筛选的配电网停电风险评估方法

An Outage Risk Assessment Method for Distribution Network Based on Fault Tree Screening

为加快配电网停电风险评估,降低自然灾害多发给配电系统和用户带来的损失,提出了基于事故树筛选的配电网停电风险评估方法。在灾害发生后,对评估区域利用事故树进行筛选,并利用提出的停电风险评估方法计算灾害影响下的停电风险。针对灾害发生前根据评估结果实施一定的应急补救措施可以减小受灾害影响的负荷量,提出了利用转供、启动自备电源和应急电源等措施来减小受灾害影响的负荷量,通过算例分析得出该方法能够快速评估出系统受灾害影响的风险值,并能通过事先实施相应的补救措施降低灾害影响的风险值,具有一定的应用价值。

In order to speed up the risk assessment of power outages in the distribution network and reduce the losses caused by natural disasters to the distribution system and users,this paper proposes an assessment of power outage risk of distribution network based on accident tree screening.After the occurrence of the disaster,the accident tree was used to screen the assessment area,and the power outage risk under the influence of the disaster was calculated by using the proposed power outage risk assessment method.In view of the fact that the implementation of certain emergency remedial measures according to the assessment results before the disaster can reduce the load affected by the disaster,the measures such as using the transfer of supply,starting the self-provided power supply and the emergency power supply are proposed to reduce the load affected by the disaster.Through the analysis of examples,it is concluded that this method can quickly evaluate the risk value of the system affected by disasters,and can reduce the risk value of disaster impact by implementing corresponding remedial measures in advance,which has certain application value.