基于下垫面变化的月径流模型在滦河中游武烈河、柳河典型子流域的应用

Application of Monthly Runoff Model Based on Underlying Surface Variation in Typical Sub-basins of Wulie River and Liuhe River in the Middle Reaches of Luanhe River

随着气候变化与人类活动的推进,研究基于下垫面变化的月径流模型尤为重要。在对当前主流月径流模型进行总结评估的基础上,结合模型应用过程中所反映的实际问题,对所涉及的关键技术进行了深入研究、改进和整合,并结合研究区水文特性,建立了一个能够综合考虑下垫面变化的月径流水文模型。实例应用表明,模型具有定量识别下垫面变化过程的能力,采用10年分段方法进行下垫面变化过程的识别是可行的,有利于消除水文过程的随机性及模型误差带来的波动性;模型在水资源评价方面可以较方便地进行还原或还现处理,定量分析出下垫面变化对水资源的影响。研究结果对于深入了解流域下垫面变化条件下的径流变化规律及未来不同气候情景下径流效应具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。

With the advance of climate change and human activities,it is particularly important to study the monthly runoff hydrological model based on underlying surface changes.The current mainstream hydrological models at home and abroad were reviewed.On the basis of the model reflecting the actual problem,the key technologies were deeply studied.Combined with hydrological characteristics of the study area,the monthly runoff of hydrology model was established,which can comprehensively consider the change of underlying surface.The case application shows that the model has the ability to quantitatively identify the underlying surface change process.It is feasible to identify the underlying surface change process using the 10 years piecewise method,which is beneficial to eliminate the randomness of hydrological processes and the volatility caused by model errors.In terms of water resources evaluation,the model can be easily reduced or reprocessed to quantitatively analyze the impact of underlying surface changes on water resources.The results have important theoretical significance and practical value for further understanding the runoff change rule under the condition of the underlying surface change and the runoff effect under different climate scenarios in the future.