耕地利用转型与县域城镇化的耦合作用及其影响因素分析——以河南省为例

Coupling interaction and driving factors of cultivated land use transition and county urbanization:A case study in Henan province

耕地利用转型与县域城镇化之间存在复杂的交互耦合关系,开展两者的耦合研究对促进耕地可持续利用和县域城镇化高质量发展具有重要意义。在厘清耕地利用转型与县域城镇化的耦合作用机制基础上,选取河南省为案例区,采用耦合协调度模型、PVAR模型等方法探究两者的耦合作用关系及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年河南省耕地利用转型经历先下降后上升的演变过程,并且呈现日益均衡的空间分布特征。(2)河南省县域城镇化水平逐渐上升,并且呈现“大集聚、小分散”的空间发展格局。(3)河南省耕地利用转型与县域城镇化耦合协调度的整体水平不断上升,并且呈现日益均衡的空间演化趋势;但是,耕地利用转型与县域城镇化的良好协调区域数量仍然较少,两者的耦合协调度有待进一步提升。(4)河南省耕地利用转型与县域城镇化的耦合协调度受自然、经济、社会、政府等多维因素的综合影响,各影响因素贡献程度和影响效应有所不同。其中,海拔、产业集聚、人口密度、公共财政支出的贡献程度相对较高;产业集聚、公共财政支出等对耦合协调度提升具有显著的正向作用,而海拔、人口密度等具有显著的负向作用。

There is a complex interaction and coupling process between cultivated land use transition and county urbanization.It is of great significance to conduct the coupling research of cultivated land use transition and county urbanization for the steady progress of sustainable utilization of cultivated land and high-quality development of urbanization.On the basis of clarifying the coupling mechanism between cultivated land use transition and county urbanization,this study takes Henan province as a case study area to explore the coupling interaction and its driving factors by applying methods such as the coupling coordination degree model and the PVAR model.The results are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land use transition undergoes an evolutionary process,first decreasing and then increasing,with an increasingly balanced spatial distribution.(2)The level of county urbanization is rising gradually,and shows a spatial development pattern of"large agglomeration and small dispersion".(3)The coupling relationship between cultivated land use transition and county urbanization has gradually improved,showing an increasingly balanced spatial evolution trend.However,the coupling coordination degree between cultivated land use transition and county urbanization needs to be further improved.(4)The coupling interaction of cultivated land use transition and county urbanization is influenced by natural,economic,social and governmental factors.The degree of contribution of different factors to the degree of coupling coordination is different,and the degree of contribution of industrial agglomeration,altitude,public financial expenditure and population density is relatively high.The impacts of different factors vary considerably.Industrial agglomeration and public financial expenditure have significant positive effects on the degree of coupling coordination,while altitude and population density have significant negative effects.