应用盈亏平衡理论指导新疆某奶牛场决策实例分析

Application of Breakeven Theory to Guide a Dairy Farm in Xinjiang Decision-making Case Analysis

为提高奶牛场生产效率,获得最大利润,本研究应用盈亏平衡分析法对新疆某奶牛养殖企业某年度1月份实际的商品奶挤奶牛头数、牛奶产量、牛奶销售价格以及平均奶产量进行分析,预测出该牧场2月份盈亏平衡时的各项生产数据,并对影响养殖企业利润的各因素敏感度进行评估排序。结果发现,在影响该牧场利润的众多因素中,按敏感度由高到低排列依次为商品奶泌乳牛头数、平均奶产量、牛奶销售单价、牛奶产量、变动成本、固定成本、其他收入。以上结果表明,通过优化该养殖场养殖头数等要素,制定出合理的决策方案,可以取得最大利润,并为其运营决策及未来发展规划提供必要的数据支撑和理论指导。

In order to improve the production efficiency of dairy farms and obtain the maximum profit,in this study,the break-even analysis method was used to analyze the actual number of commercial milking cows,milk yield,milk sales price and average milk yield in January of a year in a dairy farming enterprise in Xinjiang.The production data of the farm in February were predicted,and the sensitivity of various factors affecting the profit of the breeding enterprise was evaluated and sorted.It was found that among the many factors affecting the profit of the pasture,the sensitivity from high to low was the number of dairy cows,average milk yield,unit price of milk sales,milk yield,variable cost,fixed cost and other income.By optimizing the number of breeding head and other factors,a reasonable decision-making plan can be formulated to obtain the maximum profit,which provides the necessary data support and theoretical guidance for the operation decision-making and future development planning of dairy farming enterprises.