知识产权保护如何影响全球农产品贸易依赖网络演化?

How Does Intellectual Property Protection Affect the Evolution of Global Agricultural Trade Dependence Network?

知识产权保护引致的育种创新颠覆了传统农业集约化生产模式和贸易竞争格局,其对全球农产品贸易依赖网络演化的影响究竟如何,是一个值得深入探究的问题。本文基于1995—2019年101个经济体的农产品贸易数据,通过社会网络分析法、时态指数随机图模型(TERGM)以及其分离的形成模型和解除(或持续)模型(STERGM),定量评估知识产权保护对全球农产品贸易依赖网络演化的影响,并进一步利用Heckman两阶段模型进行影响机制解析。研究发现:出口方与进口方知识产权保护分别形成推力和拉力两股相斥作用力。出口方加强知识产权保护通过质量提升效应、种类扩张效应和市场分散化效应阻碍农产品贸易依赖网络中新依赖关系的形成,并提高旧依赖关系的解除概率,总体上降低了经济体间农产品贸易依赖程度。然而,进口方知识产权保护通过市场势力效应和质量筛选效应,更有利于贸易依赖网络新关系形成和旧关系维持,进而加深了经济体间贸易依赖程度。本研究为我国建立有效的农业知识产权保护制度以及提升农产品国际贸易竞争力提供了实证支持。

Breeding innovation caused by intellectual property protection has overturned the traditional agricultural intensive production model and trade competition pattern.What is its impact on the evolution of the world's agricultural trade dependence network?This is a question worthy of in-depth exploration.Based on the agricultural product trade data of 101 economies from 1995 to 2019,we use social network analysis,temporal exponential random graph model(TERGM)and its decomposed formation model and dissolution(or persistence)model(STERGM)to quantitatively evaluate the impact of intellectual property protection on the evolution of global agricultural trade dependence network,and further use the Heckman two-stage model to analyze the impact mechanism.Research findings:The intellectual property protection of exporters and importers forms two repulsive forces of"push"and"pull"respectively.The strengthening of intellectual property protection by exporters hinders the formation of new dependencies and increase the probability of dissolution of old dependencies by generating quality improvement effects,category expansion effects,and market decentralization,thereby reducing the degree of agricultural product trade dependence among economies.However,through the market power effect and quality screening effect,the intellectual property protection by importers is more conducive to the formation of new dependencies and the maintenance of old dependencies in the trade dependence network,and thus deepens the degree of trade dependence among economies.This article provides empirical support for the establishment of an effective agricultural intellectual property protection system and enhance the international trade competitiveness of agricultural products in China.