计划生育政策调整与家庭生育响应——基于社会分层视角的分析

Family Planning Policy Transition and Family's Fertility Behavior Response:An Analysis from the Social Stratification Perspective

本研究关注计划生育政策调整对生育行为的干预作用,重在系统识别由家庭间社会经济地位差异塑造的异质性政策响应模式。利用2013年“单独二孩”政策形成的独特研究机会,基于非参数匹配和回归调整的因果识别策略,通过分析2015年全国1%人口抽样调查微观数据样本,本研究发现,政策目标夫妻生育二孩的概率较其他夫妻显著升高,而且夫妻响应计划生育政策调整的二孩生育行为基于其社会经济地位呈现分层现象,表明当前有关生育及后续养育、教育等多方面效用成本的预期对生育决策有重要塑造作用。

This study focuses on the interventional effects of family planning policy transition and,more importantly,identifies the systematic patterns of heterogeneous policy responses as shaped by family socioeconomic differentials.It takes advantage of the unique research opportunity set by the“Two-child Policy for One-Only-Child Couples”.Using casual identification strategies incorporating non-parametric matching and regression adjustment,we analyzed the 2015 National One-Percent Population Survey microdata sample and find that,policy-targeted couples had a significantly higher probability of having a second child than non-targeted couples.Meanwhile,the couples'secondchild fertility behaviors in response to the family planning policy transition were systematically stratified by family socioeconomic status,highlighting the important roles of concerns over high costs in childbearing,rearing,and education in shaping fertility decisions in today's China.