中国农村人口现状及生育意愿问题研究

A Study of Current Population Status and Fertility Intentions in Rural China

农村人口动态、生育观念与意愿对我国乡村社会发展、国家长久稳定以及乡村振兴工作意义重大。我国农村地区人口呈现显著的下降趋势,且“少子化”问题加剧;大量育龄人口不断向城市迁移,导致农村地区生育潜力日益衰退;随着教育水平的提升和婚育观念的转变,农村人口的生育意愿普遍较低,且在不同地域、性别、世代间存在明显差异。在促进生育的多项政策中,农村育龄人口最为关注的是住房和养老政策、就业政策以及针对多孩家庭的生育津贴和推动教育公平的举措,表明农村人口发展政策的制定需要结合实际,充分考虑政策的适应性、阶段性、差异性等特征,以确保其有效性和可行性。

The dynamics of rural population,fertility beliefs,and intentions play a crucial role in the development of rural society in China,the long-term stability of the nation,and the revitalization efforts in rural areas.This article,through an in-depth analysis of both macro and micro data from population censuses,reveals the following key findings:Firstly,there is a significant declining trend in the population of rural areas in China,accompanied by an intensifying issue of declining birth rates.Secondly,a substantial number of individuals of childbearing age,especially among the young cohorts and females,continue to migrate to urban areas,leading to a gradual decline in the fertility potential in rural areas.Thirdly,with the elevation in education levels and shifts in marital and fertility beliefs,the fertility desires among rural populations are generally lower,exhibiting notable differences across regions,genders,and generations.In particular,the fertility intentions of young people have risen relatively,while those of women have continued to decline.Fourthly,among various policies aimed at promoting fertility,rural youth show the highest support for housing and pension policies,employment policies,as well as fertility allowances for families with multiple children and initiatives promoting educational equity.These findings indicate that the formulation of policies pertaining to rural population development needs to be grounded in reality,taking into account the adaptability,phase-specific,and different characteristics of policies to ensure their effectiveness and feasibility.