经济循环、价值链重构与东北工业振兴

Economic Cycle,Reconstruction of Value Chain and Revitalization of Northeast Industry

本文探究了在中国加入全球经济循环的背景下东北工业的衰退现象,并利用1987-2015年中国区域间投入产出数据,分解了东北工业的区际贸易和产值。研究发现:从区域联动视角来看,我们通过对东北工业区际贸易中增加值份额、互动和流动形式等指标的动态研究,证实了东北工业在国内价值链上被边缘化这一事实;从空间依存视角来看,东北工业表现出“生产-消费”自循环特点。此外,东北与国内其他地区在工业生产中呈现出强烈的“溢出不对称”现象及“高敏感低分散”特征,反映出东北工业在国内价值链上的弱化趋势。经验研究表明,在国内价值链上被边缘化这一问题的存在,能够在一定程度上解释东北工业衰退和“振而不兴”困境及其作用机制。

Under the background of China's entry into the global economic cycle,this paper ex-plores the phenomenon of industrial recession in Northeast China.Based on China's Interregional input-output data from 1987 to 2015,the interregional trade and output value of Northeast indus-try are decomposed.Research has found that:From the perspective of regional linkage,it is found that through the dynamic research on the participation of Northeast industrial value chain and the value-added share,interaction and flow form in interregional trade,the fact that North-east industry is decoupled from the domestic value chain is confirmed.From the perspective of spatial dependence,Northeast industry shows the characteristics of“production and consump-tion”self-circulation,the Northeast and other parts of China show a strong phenomenon of“spill-over asymmetry”and the characteristics of“high sensitivity and low dispersion”in industrial pro-duction,reflecting the weakening trend of Northeast industry in the domestic value chain.Empir-ical research has shown that the existence of marginalization in the domestic value chain can to some extent explain the decline of Northeast industry and the dilemma of“revitalization but not prosperity”,as well as the mechanism.