中亚管道气供应安全形势与应对策略

Analysis of the security situation and countermeasures for pipeline gas supply in Central Asia

通过分析中亚地区主要天然气资源国土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的资源潜力,以及该地区储产量增长趋势,评价其出口供应能力和天然气供需形势。该地区天然气资源分布不均、资源国供需形势变化造成的气源风险,管道长距离跨境运输及地区安全形势导致的管道运输风险,各类突发事件造成的断供风险,构成目前中国从中亚地区进口管道气面临的主要风险因素。基于中亚地区天然气供应安全的新形势,针对经由中国-中亚天然气管道进口天然气的气源供应,建议:一是跟踪中亚地区勘探开发新动态,积极寻找可接替气源,寻找储产量新的增长点;二是研究主要天然气资源国的能源战略和出口政策,在复杂多变的国际局势下,抓住机遇与中亚资源国在能源领域开展深入合作,保障天然气供应安全;三是拓展与中亚资源国在可再生能源领域的多元化合作,科学合理地利用可再生能源,保障中亚资源国对中国天然气出口的安全性和可持续性。

The paper analyzes the resource potential of such main natural gas resource countries in Central Asia as Turkmenistan,Kazakhstan,and Uzbekistan and the growth trend of reserves and output in the region,as well as evaluates their export supply capacity and the situation of natural gas supply and demand.Uneven distribution of natural gas resources in the region,gas source risk caused by changes in the supply and demand situation in resource countries,pipeline transportation risk due to long-distance cross-border transportation and regional security situation,and the risk of supply shutdown caused by various emergencies are the main risk factors for China's pipeline gas import from the Central Asian region at present.Based on the new situation of natural gas supply security in Central Asia,it is suggested that China should track the new dynamics of exploration and development in Central Asia,actively look for replacement gas sources,and search for new growth points of storage and output firstly,study the energy strategies and export policies of major natural gas resource countries and grasp the opportunity to carry out deeper cooperation in energy field with Central Asian resource countries so as to guarantee the security of natural gas supply secondly,expand diversified cooperation with Central Asian resource countries in the field of renewable energy,and scientifically and reasonably utilize the renewable energy,so as to guarantee the security and sustainability of the natural gas export from Central Asian resource countries to China thirdly.