2024年国际原油价格展望

International crude oil price outlook in 2024

2024年,地缘政治形势复杂严峻,宏观经济在美国高通胀、高利率环境下增速放缓,石油市场仍然面临需求疲弱与欧佩克减产意愿强烈的困境。预计2024年全球石油库存小幅上涨,全年供需紧平衡;欧佩克掌控市场平衡大权,供应增量集中在美国等国家;全球石油需求增长仍看中国。2024年下半年美联储大概率进入降息周期,预计油价下行压力较大,同时叠加美国大选等地缘政治事件,油价不确定性大幅增加。结合2023年油价走势,预计2024年全年Brent原油价格波动区间在70~100美元/桶,70美元/桶附近为底部支撑,均价在83美元/桶,下半年波动中枢较上半年下移。

In 2024,the geopolitical situation will be complex and severe,the macroeconomics is facing a slowdown in the US high inflation and high interest rate environment,and the oil market is still facing the dilemma of weak demand and OPEC's strong willingness to cut oil productions.From the macro perspective,the Federal Reserve will enter the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024,oil price are expected to go down and its uncertainty will increase significantly with superimposition on the U.S.election and other geopolitical events.In supply and demand fundamentals,global oil inventories are expected to rise slightly in 2024,and supply & demand will be tightly balanced throughout the year.OPEC will control the market balance,incremental supply will concentrate in the United States and other countries,and global oil demand growth is still focused on China.Combined with the trend of oil prices in 2023,it is expected that,the annual fluctuation range of Brent crude oil prices in the range of $70-$100/barrel,$70/barrel near the bottom of the support,the average price of $83/barrel in 2024 and the volatility of the second half of the pivot will shift downward compared to the first half of the year.