摘要
2023年,全球天然气市场供需相对宽松,天然气价格逐步回归常态。俄罗斯基本停止了欧洲方向的管道气出口,欧洲继续进口区域外LNG,但高气价、暖冬和经济衰退导致需求下降,欧洲库存处于近年来最高水平;亚太地区LNG需求也有所放缓。2024年,天然气市场供需依然宽松,美国、中东为主的供应端供给增速仍然维持较高水平,但欧洲、亚太作为天然气买方市场需求端亮点不足,买方话语权提升,市场逐渐回归常态化。当前较低的气价将持续到2024年1季度,但受地缘政治和天气因素及可能发生的供应中断影响,价格波动将较大。2024年,美国至欧洲或亚洲的区域价差将维持较宽水平,价差预计超过10美元/百万英热单位。建议中国石油公司加大对天然气市场的分析和预测,加大全球天然气贸易的参与力度,保障国内能源安全。
In 2023,supply and demand in the global gas market is relatively relaxed,with gas prices gradually returning to the normal.Russia essentially stopped pipeline gas exports to Europe,and Europe continued to import extra-regional LNG,but high gas prices,warm winters,and economic recession led to a decline in demand,and European inventories were at the highest level in recent years.LNG demand in Asia-Pacific also slowed.In 2024,the supply and demand of the natural gas market will remain loose,and the supply growth rate of the supply side dominated by the United States and the Middle East will keep a high level,but Europe and Asia-Pacific,as the demand side highlights of the natural gas buyer market,will be insufficient,the buyer's voice will be strengthened,and the market will gradually return to normality.The current lower gas prices will keep until Q1 2024,but price volatility will be higher due to geopolitical,weather factors and other possible supply disruptions.In 2024,the regional price spread from the U.S.to Europe or Asia will maintain a wider level,and the spread is expected to exceed $10/mm BTU.It is recommended that China's oil companies boost their analysis and forecasting of the natural gas market,and increase their participation in the global natural gas trade to ensure domestic energy security.
作者
衣旭峰
YI Xufeng(China International United Petroleum & Chemicals Co., Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2023年第12期59-66,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
