基于灰色关联度分析法的京津冀卫生费用影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Health Expenditure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

目的 对京津冀卫生费用影响因素进行研究,为京津冀医疗卫生事业的发展建言献策。方法 数据来源于《中国统计年鉴》和《中国卫生统计年鉴》等,通过阅读文献选取指标,采用灰色关联度分析法,探究并对比2004—2018年京津冀人均卫生费用的影响因素和关联程度。结果 研究所选取指标与卫生费用关联度均大于0.5;其中反映经济发展水平的人均GDP与三地卫生费用关联度分别为0.877 4、0.893 2、0.787 6;反映卫生资源配置的诊疗人次数关联度分别为0.826 8、0.773 7、0.708 0,出院人数关联度分别为0.859 0、0.770 2、0.783 9;以上三项指标为三地费用的主要影响因素,而其他因素对费用的影响程度低于上述三者且存在地区差异。结论 京津冀卫生费用持续增长且差距逐渐加大,经济、社会、医疗卫生等多方面因素共同影响三地卫生费用发展,对于京津冀卫生政策的制定具有一定借鉴意义。

Objective Research on the influencing factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei health expenditure,and provide suggestions for the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei medical and health undertakings.Methods The data of this study came from "China Statistical Yearbook" and "China Health Statistical Yearbook".Through the selection of indicators in the literature,the gray correlation analysis method was used to explore and compare the influencing factors and correlation degree of per capita health expenses in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2004 to 2018.Results The correlation between the selected indicators and health expenses in this study was greater than 0.5.Among them,the correlation degrees between per capita GDP and the health expenses of the three places are 0.877 4,0.893 2,and 0.787 6 respectively.The correlation degrees of the number of patients were 0.826 8,0.773 7,and 0.708 0 respectively,and the correlation degrees of the number of discharged patients were 0.859 0,0.770 2,and 0.783 9 respectively.The above three indicators were the main factors affecting the expenditure of the three places,while other factors had a lower impact on the expenditure than the above three and there were regional differences.Conclusion Health expenditures in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei continue to grow and the gap is gradually widening.Economic,social,medical and other factors jointly affect the development of health expenses in the three places.It has certain reference significance for the formulation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei health policy.