畜禽疫病风险防控模型研究进展及展望

Review of Research on Risk Prevention and Control Models of Livestock and Poultry Diseases

畜禽疫病会造成畜牧业及相关产业损失,引发人畜共患病,威胁公共卫生安全,引起民众恐慌等,有效的畜禽疫病风险防控是解决此类问题的关键。目前国内关于畜禽疫病风险防控的研究较为薄弱,本文通过梳理主要畜禽疫病风险防控模型,将畜禽疫病风险防控研究系统化,为后续研究提供科学依据。研究发现,一是畜禽流行病模型最初只对疫病感染率进行简单计算,随后将疫病影响因素间的关系考虑在内,使用统计学模型考察疫病传播的复杂性,其后又将时空维度纳入流行病模型,建立畜禽疫病空间模型及模拟模型。二是畜禽经济学模型可以根据现实需求选择成本收益模型对疫情造成的损益加以简单计算,或者根据“投入-产出”模型利用指定乘数估计疫情对其他部门的经济影响,还可以根据均衡模型考察部分市场的供求与价格间关系,以及根据一般均衡模型分析畜禽疫病对其他商品要素和行业的影响。三是基于国家或地方农业部门经济模型和传统经济分析方法建立畜禽疫病综合模型,将流行病模型结果纳入经济分析中,以求解最优疫病防控策略或策略组合,并进行策略模拟。四是畜禽疫病模型的建立需要明确其建模条件,建立完整、准确的数据信息系统,根据现实情景建模,而未来畜禽疫病模型需要考虑疫病的社会影响,将社会伦理道德、公众心理预期、风险计算纳入其中,并结合多学科工具的支持不断完善。可以看出,本文通过对畜禽流行病模型、畜禽经济学模型和综合模型的梳理,将畜禽疫病模型发展系统化,为我国重大畜禽疫病风险防控提供理论依据。

Livestock and poultry diseases can cause losses to animal husbandry and related industries,cause zoonotic diseases,threaten public health security,and cause public panic.Effective risk prevention and control of livestock and poultry diseases is the key to solving such problems.At present,domestic research on risk prevention and control of livestock and poultry epidemics is relatively weak.This paper systematically organizes the research on livestock and poultry epidemic risk prevention and control by sorting out main livestock and poultry epidemic risk prevention and control models,and provides a scientific basis for subsequent research.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The livestock and poultry epidemiological model initially only calculates the infection rate of the epidemic simply,and then takes into account the relationship between the influencing factors of the epidemic,and uses a statistical model to examine the complexity of the spread of the epidemic,then establishes a spatial model and simulation model of livestock and poultry diseases;(2)The livestock and poultry economics model can choose a cost-benefit model according to actual needs to simply calculate the profit and loss caused by the epidemic,or use a specified multiplier to estimate the economic impact of the epidemic on other sectors according to the input-output model.The relationship between supply and demand and prices in some markets can also be investigated according to the equilibrium model,and the impact of livestock and poultry diseases on other commodity factors and industries can be analyzed according to the general equilibrium model;(3)A comprehensive model of livestock and poultry diseases based on the national or local agricultural sector economic model and traditional economic analysis methods established,and incorporate the results of the epidemiological model into the economic analysis to solve the optimal epidemic prevention and control strategy or strategy combination,and conduct strategy simulation;(4)The establishment of the livestock and poultry epidemic model needs to clarify the modeling conditions,establish a complete and accurate data information system,and model according to the actual situation.In the future,the livestock and poultry epidemic model needs to consider the social impact of the epidemic by incorporating social ethics,public psychological expectations,and risk calculation,and continuously improve with the support of multidisciplinary tools.It can be seen that this paper systematizes the development of livestock and poultry epidemic model by combing the livestock and poultry epidemic model,livestock and poultry economic model and comprehensive model,and provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of major livestock and poultry epidemic risks in our country.