中国农业碳补偿率的动态演进、区域差异及空间收敛性研究

Dynamic Evolution,Regional Differences and Spatial Convergence of China's Agricultural Carbon Compensation Rates

探索农业碳补偿率的分布动态、区域差异及收敛特征,可为全国整体和分区域制定农业减排固碳政策提供量化支撑。本文将农业碳排放和碳汇同时纳入农业碳补偿率核算体系,测算2006—2021年中国30个省份的农业碳补偿率,采用核密度估计法、Dagum基尼系数和空间计量模型剖析其动态演进、区域差异及空间收敛特征。结果表明:(1)中国农业碳补偿率整体表现出“绝对水平上升,离散程度扩大”的特征,而粮食主销区表现出“绝对水平下降,离散程度缩小”的相反特征;(2)区域间差异是农业碳补偿率总体差异的主要来源,其中粮食主产区和产销平衡区的区域间差异较小;(3)全国及三大区域农业碳补偿率均不存在σ收敛,但存在绝对和条件β收敛。全国和粮食主产区存在正向空间溢出效应,产销平衡区与之相反,区域内虹吸效应和“核心—边缘”的格局显著。不同区域的农业技术进步、劳均机械动力、农业产业结构、农业发展水平对农业碳补偿率的影响也有显著异质性。研究建议,加快农业能源结构转型、提升土壤固碳能力、强化区域内部平衡性,以促进区域间农业减排增汇工作协调发展。

Exploring the distribution dynamics,regional differences and convergence characteristics of agricultural carbon compensation rate can provide quantitative support for the formulation of agricultural carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration policies across the country and in sub-regions.By incorporating both agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks into the agricultural carbon compensation rate accounting system,the agricultural carbon compensation rates of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2006 to 2021 are measured,and their dynamic evolution,regional differences and spatial convergence characteristics are analyzed using the kernel density estimation method,Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial econometric model.The results show that:(1)China's agricultural carbon compensation rate shows the characteristics of“absolute level rises and dispersion degree expands”,and the main grain sales areas show the opposite characteristics of“absolute level declines and dispersion degree narrows”.(2)Inter-regional differences are the main source of the overall differences in agricultural carbon compensation rates.Among them,the inter-regional differences between the main grain-producing areas and the production and sales balance areas are small.(3)There is no o convergence in the national and three regional agricultural carbon compensation rates,but there is absolute and conditionalβconvergence.There is a positive spatial spillover effect in the growth of agricultural carbon compensation rates nationwide and in major grain-producing regions.On the contrary,the siphon effect and the“core-periphery”pattern in the regions with balanced production and sales are significant.There is also significant heterogeneity in the impact of agricultural technological progress,mechanical power per labor,agricultural industrial structure,and agricultural development level on the agricultural carbon compensation rates in different regions.It is suggested to speed up the transformation of agricultural energy structure,improve soil carbon sequestration capacity,strengthen the balance within the region,and promote the coordinated development of agricultural emission reduction and sink increase among regions.