近71a影响黑龙江省热带气旋统计特征分析

Statistical analysis of tropical cyclones affecting Heilongjiang over the past 71 years

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1949-2019年热带气旋数据,统计分析近71 a影响黑龙江省的热带气旋发生时间、频率、强度、移动路径等特征。结果表明:近71 a影响黑龙江的热带气旋共有77个,平均1.08个·a^(-1),其中有28 a没有热带气旋影响黑龙江;近10 a是黑龙江受热带气旋影响的活跃期,西北太平洋生成的热带气旋频数与影响黑龙江的频数没有直接相关关系,出现El Nino或La Nina现象时对影响黑龙江的热带气旋起抑制作用;热带气旋影响黑龙江最早出现在5月,最晚出现在9月,8月出现频率最高,“七下八中下”是每年的活跃阶段;在强度上,影响黑龙江的超强台风居多,但近年趋于减少,更多低级别的热带气旋可维持较长生命史北上产生影响;牡丹江市为黑龙江最易受热带气旋影响的地区;按移动路径可将影响黑龙江的热带气旋分为两类,分别为北上热带气旋和偏东路径热带气旋,其中北上热带气旋又可进一步分为七类,其中经朝鲜半岛东转向出现的频次最多,但对黑龙江影响相对较小;经朝鲜半岛北上和高纬东转向更容易给黑龙江带来严重的风雨影响。

Based on the compiled data of tropical cyclones from 1949 to 2019 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration,a statistical analysis was conducted on the occurrence time,frequency,intensity,and movement tracks of tropical cyclones affecting Heilongjiang over the past 71 years.Results indicate that there were a total of 77 tropical cyclones affecting Heilongjiang in the past 71 years,with an average of 1.08 cyclones per year.Among them,there were 28 years without any tropical cyclone impact on Heilongjiang.The past decade was an active period for tropical cyclone impact on Heilongjiang,but there was no direct correlation between the frequency of tropical cyclones generated in the northwest Pacific and the frequency of their impact on Heilongjiang.The occurrence of El Ni o or La Ni a phenomena had inhibitory effects on the tropical cyclones affecting Heilongjiang.The earliest occurrence of tropical cyclone impact on Heilongjiang was in May,the latest in September,and August had the highest frequency of occurrence,representing the most active period each year.In terms of intensity,super typhoons had the highest impact on Heilongjiang,but their occurrence has been decreasing in recent years,with more lower-level tropical cyclones maintaining a longer northward trajectory to affect the region.Mudanjiang City is the area most susceptible to the impact of tropical cyclones in Heilongjiang.The tropical cyclones affecting Heilongjiang can be divided into two categories based on their movement tracks:northward-moving tropical cyclones and eastward-biased tropical cyclones.Among them,northward-moving tropical cyclones can be further classified into seven types,with the most frequent occurrence being the eastward turn after passing through the Korean Peninsula,but their impact on Heilongjiang is relatively small.Northward movement through the Korean Peninsula,but their impact on Heilongjiang is relatively small.Northward movement through the Korean Peninsula and eastward turn at high latitudes are more likely to bring severe wind and rain impacts to Heilongjiang.