中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的空间特征及影响因素

China's Direct Investment in Belt and Road Countries:Spatial Features and Influencing Factors

本文基于2009-2021年中国对“一带一路”沿线46个国家直接投资的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型实证检验了中国对沿线国家直接投资的影响因素及其空间溢出效应。研究发现:中国对沿线国家直接投资存在显著空间溢出效应;沿线国家市场规模、进出口贸易总额、制度环境会显著促进中国对其直接投资增长,并对邻近国家具有显著正向空间溢出效应;异质性检验结果显示,市场规模对中国对沿线低收入国家直接投资促进作用更明显,而进出口贸易总额、制度环境与技术水平对中国对沿线高收入国家直接投资促进作用更加显著。因此,未来中国对沿线国家直接投资应根据具体条件和合作基础确定重点投资东道国,形成“多点带面”的对外直接投资格局;投资时,应注重对经济发展水平较低的国家市场挖掘,开发其投资潜力;充分发挥“16+1”等合作机制,大力推进中国先进装备制造业、高新技术产业“走出去”,形成市场、技术双向联动的对外投资格局;同时应制定差异化的投资策略,以满足不同国家需求。

Based on the panel data from 2009 to 2021,this paper constructs a Spatial Dubin Model to empirically test the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of China's direct investment in 46 Belt and Road(hereafter referred to as B&R)countries.The results show the effect is quite significant.The market size,total volume of import and export trade and institutional environment of the B&R countries significantly promotes China's direct investment,which also has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on neighboring countries.A heterogeneity test shows in the interaction process market size plays a more obvious role in promoting China's direct investment in low-income B&R countries,while total import and export trade,institutional environment and technological level have a more significant effect on the promotion of China's direct investment in high-income B&R countries.Therefore,in the future,China should take into account of the specific conditions and cooperation basis before deciding key investment targets,forming a "multi-faceted" pattern of foreign direct investment.Attention should be paid to tapping the market of countries with lower economic level and developing their investment potential.We should give full play to such mechanisms like the 16+1 cooperation so as to vigorously promote China's advanced equipment manufacturers and high-tech industries to go global,thus forming a two-way linkage pattern of outbound investment based on market and technology.At the same time,differentiated investment strategies should be formulated to meet the needs of different countries.