“边老边减”与经济增长:来自中国人口负增长地区的证据

The Impacts of Population Declining and Aging on Economic Growth:Evidence from China's Provincial Negative Population Growth

中国人口进入了老龄化与负增长交汇的“边老边减”阶段。文章梳理了人口老龄化、人口负增长影响经济增长的文献,基于供需互动视角建立了经济增长模型,模型推演表明,人口负增长时代,经济增长慢于人口增长和不增长阶段。利用人口普查和我国2010—2021年的省级面板数据,对人口负增长地区与全国的经济表现和增长模式进行了实证研究。结果表明,人口负增长地区的常住人口减少使得产出增长年均放缓0.99~1.82个百分点。“边老边减”对需求侧和总产出增长有不利影响。人口负增长地区的经济增长速度明显低于全国水平。面对人口发展新常态,不必过分忧虑劳动力减少。要着力提高全要素生产率,鼓励技术进步和投资,把人口高质量发展同人民高品质生活和实施扩大内需战略紧密结合起来,稳定人口规模,确保经济增长处于合理区间。

China has entered into a stage where aging and negative population growth(NPG)interweave-"aging while declining".The paper reviews the literature on the impact of population aging and NPG on economic growth.An economic growth model is established based on the interaction between supply and demand.Model deduction shows that the economic growth rate in NPG era would be slower than before.On the basis of census and China's 2010-2021 provincial panel data for empirical test,compared the economic performance and growth fashion in all provinces and NPG region,We found that resident population decline in NPG areas had led to economic growth loss by 0.99~1.82 percentage per year during 2010-2021."Aging while declining"are negative influences on demand-side and total output growth rate significantly.We suggest that,don't be carious much about labor and economic growth declining under demographic new normal.Efforts should be made to raise total productivity,encourage technological progress and investment,combine high-quality population development with people's high-quality life and the domestic demand expansion strategy closely,stabilize population size and ensure that economic growth stays within a proper range.