新时代最低生活保障与共同富裕耦合协调发展研究

Study on the Coupling and Coordination Development Between Minimum Living Security and Common Prosperity in the New Era

基于2012-2021年中国内地31个省(直辖市、自治区)省际面板数据,使用熵值法和耦合协调度模型测度最低生活保障与共同富裕的耦合协调水平,使用分区均值统计和Kernel核密度估计方法分析其动态演进特征,用空间莫兰指数和Dagum基尼系数分析其空间分异特征。研究发现:在时间上,中国内地31个省份最低生活保障与共同富裕耦合协调度呈现整体优化趋势。在空间上,各省份耦合协调度存在空间集聚现象和区域不平等现象。在四大经济区域中,东部地区省份呈现高-高聚类,西部地区省份呈现低-低聚类,聚类变化较为稳定。中国内地耦合协调度的发展差距主要由四大经济区域之间的差距主导,在研究时间段内呈现逐渐缩小的趋势。研究得出如下启示:积极推进最低生活保障制度的建设和完善;继续巩固和提高共同富裕水平;高质量地推进最低生活保障与共同富裕耦合协调发展;正确处理好公共危机事件所带来的冲击。

The inter-provincial panel data for 3l provinces(including all the provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan in China)from 2012 to 2021 have been selected considering their availability,this paper established the coupling coordination model between the minimum living security and common prosperity by using the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model.The time series analysis with district statistics and kernel density estimation,spatial analysis with Moran's I Index and Dagum Gini Index were carried out to analyze the coupling coordination development between the minimum living security and common prosperity.The research indicated that,in terms of time,the coupling and coordination degree between minimum living security and common prosperity in 31 provinces had an overall optimization trend.In space,the coupling coordination degree of each province had the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration and regional inequality.In four major economic regions,the eastern region presented a high-high clustering category,while the western region presented a low-low clustering category.The gap of national coupling coordination degree was mainly dominated by the gap between the four major economic regions,which showed a gradually narrowing trend.The research drew the enlightenment as below including to promote the construction and improvement of the minimum living security actively,to consolidate and improve the level of common prosperity continuously,to promote the coupling and coordinated development between minimum living security and common prosperity with high quality,and handle the impact of public crisis events properly.