航空公司安全韧性评价模型

Evaluation model of airline safety resilience

为科学量化航空公司应对风险冲击与扰动,保持安全运行水平稳定的能力,将“安全韧性”概念引入航空公司安全管理,构建航空公司安全韧性评价模型。基于交通运输领域对韧性内涵的理解,提出航空公司安全韧性概念曲线,明确了航空公司安全韧性包括风险应对能力和安全运行恢复能力两方面。运用文献计量法和专家访谈法建立了航空公司安全韧性评价指标体系。运用序关系分析法和物元可拓理论构建了航空公司安全韧性评价模型。运用该模型对A航空公司进行评价,结果表明,A航空公司安全韧性等级为五级,处于优秀水平,与公司现阶段实际情况基本相符。

In order to scientifically quantify the ability of airlines to cope with risks and disturbances,and maintain a stable level of safe transportation,the concept of"safety resilience"is introduced into airline safety management,and an evaluation model of airline safety resilience is established.Based on the general understanding of resilience in the field of transportation,combined with the actual characteristics of airlines,the concept curve of airline safety resilience is proposed,which defines that airline safety resilience includes risk response capability and safe operation recovery capability.Through a literature search,it is found that the content that can be measured by the four elements of resilience basically matches the content that should be measured by the connotation of airline safety resilience.Therefore,the four elements of resilience are taken as the first⁃class indicators of the airline safety resilience evaluation system.Using the literature measurement method to extract the representative resilience evaluation indicators in the existing literature,combined with expert opinions,they are transformed and revised one by one.Finally,taking robustness,redundancy,efficiency,and adaptability as the first⁃class indicators,there are 18 second⁃class indexes and 53 third⁃class indexes,and the airline safety resilience evaluation indicators system is constructed.Referring to the model of urban resilience evaluation scorecard proposed by the United Nations Disaster Reduction Agency,the evaluation indicators are divided into five grades,and the meaning and classification standard of each evaluation indicator are determined.After the weight of each index is determined by using sequence relationship analysis(G1 method),matter⁃element extension theory is employed to determine the grade of each index and the overall safety resilience.The model is used to evaluate airline A.The evaluation results show that the safety resilience of airline A is at excellent level,which is basically consistent with the actual situation of airline A at this stage,which verifies the accuracy of the evaluation model.Besides,the weaknesses identified during the evaluation process are further analyzed,and the strategies for airline A to improve its safety resilience are provided.