摘要
2023年世界经济在金融环境收紧、地缘政治冲突加剧等挑战下超预期放缓,美欧等发达经济体间增长出现分化,高通胀缓解、服务业复苏等是年度亮点。展望2024年,世界经济仍旧面临复杂发展格局,如大国选举年叠加地缘政治危机、利率持续高位运行等,这将导致全球经济增速继续放缓,债务金融风险累积,但随主要发达国家经济基本摆脱滞涨困境,货币政策有望转向,预计国际贸易将有所改善。中国经济总体处于回升向好的复苏周期当中,服务消费与服务业增长支撑2023年国民生产总值实现较快反弹,预计2024年贸易投资将进一步企稳,重点行业与新兴领域将出现新亮点。
In 2023,the world economy slowed down beyond expectations under challenges such as tightening financial conditions and intensifying geopolitical conflicts,and growth rates diverged among developed economies.The easing of high inflation and the recovery of service sector were highlights of the year.Looking ahead to 2024,rising geopolitical uncertainties and relatively high level of interest rates will lead to a continued slowdown in global economic growth and accumulation of debt and financial risks.However,world trade will improve as major developed countries basically overcome stagflation and monetary policies are expected to shift.China's economy is in an recovery cycle,with rapid rebound in service consumption and service industries.In 2024,China's trade and investment are expected to further stabilize,and new highlights will emerge in new areas.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期3-13,M0002,共12页
World Economy Studies
