去杠杆政策如何影响金融服务实体经济效率?——基于海南自贸港的经验证据

How does the deleveraging policy affect the efficiency of financial services for the real economy?empirical evidence from Hainan Free Trade Port

作为防范化解系统性金融风险和促进经济高质量发展的重要抓手,研究去杠杆政策如何影响金融服务实体经济效率具有重要意义。基于2011—2020年海南自贸港18市县金融服务实体经济效率测算结果,采用断点回归设计(RDD)方法,评估去杠杆政策对海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率的影响,并运用中介效应模型讨论了其影响机制。研究发现:(1)去杠杆政策实施后,海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率存在“阵痛期”,去杠杆政策对效率具有显著调整效应,存在一个最优杠杆以促进金融服务实体经济效率的提升;(2)在控制金融与经济体系内其他影响因素后,杠杆率对效率的提升具有促进作用,表明合理阈值内的“优杠杆”呈积极作用;(3)进一步中介机制检验表明,金融体系结构与金融业规模作为金融供给端的两种重要机制,前者能够通过增加高质量的金融资源供给提高效率,而金融业规模则囿于规模有限性与资本来源渠道受限的风险叠加,导致在去杠杆政策实施后对效率的提升呈负向作用。基于以上结论,进一步从创新自贸港金融发展方式、金融工具创新、杠杆优化等方面提出相关对策建议。

As an important way to prevent and defuse the systemic financial risks and promote the high-quality economic development,it is of great significance to study how the deleveraging policy affects the efficiency of financial services for the real economy.Based on the measurement results of the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in 18 cities and counties in Hainan Free Trade Port from 2011 to 2020,the RDD is adopted to evaluate the impact of the deleveraging policies on the efficiency of financial services for the real economy of Hainan Free Trade Port,and the intermediary effect model is used to discuss the influencing mechanism.The results show that:(1)After the implementation of deleveraging policy,the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in Hainan Free Trade Port experiences a"period of pain".The deleveraging policy has a significant adjustment effect on the efficiency.There is an optimal leverage to promote the improvement of the efficiency of financial services for the real economy.(2)After controlling other influencing factors in the financial and economic system,the leverage ratio has a promoting effect on the improvement of efficiency,indicating that the"optimal leverage"within a reasonable threshold has a positive effect.(3)The further intermediation mechanism test shows that the financial system structure and the financial industry scale are the two important mechanisms at the financial supply.The former can improve the efficiency by increasing the supply of high-quality financial resources,while the latter is limited by the risk superposition of limited scale and limited capital source channels,resulting in a negative effect on the improvement of efficiency after the implementation of deleveraging policy.Accordingly,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are further proposed from the aspects of innovating the financial development mode of free trade port,financial instrument innovation and leverage optimization.