中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度:时空分异、动态演变及驱动因素

THE CLUSTER INTENSITY OF CHINESE TOURISTS' SAFETY ACCIDENTS IN ASEAN SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION,DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS

利用收敛指数、核密度估计、空间自相关、马尔科夫链等方法对中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度的时空分异、动态演变及驱动因素进行探析。结果表明:(1)2011—2019年中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度呈收敛趋势,高集群强度国家单元呈扩展态势。(2)旅游安全事件集群强度类型转移具有空间锁定、梯度变化、转移模式丰富的特征。(3)人员规模压力、交通设施风险、自然环境风险对事件集群强度有明显抬升作用,社会安全风险通过对旅游流的“挤出”效应发挥着一定程度的抑制作用,安全管理能力对集群强度具有明显的负向抑制作用。

This study focuses on constructing a cluster intensity model for Chinese tourists' safety accidents in ASEAN. Convergence index, KDE, spatial auto-correlation and Markov chain were used to analyze the spatio-temporal differentiation, dynamic evolution, and driving factors of cluster intensity. The results show that: Firstly, the SD, CV, and GINI of the cluster intensity show a downward trend, suggesting α and absoluteβ convergence effects. The "peak" of the kernel density curve indicating an overall increase in the cluster intensity. Secondly, there is a spatial correlation in the cluster intensity, and the number of countries with high cluster intensity is expanding over time. Thirdly, the Markov chain transition probability matrix illustrates that the transfer of cluster intensity follows distinct geographical patterns, characterized by spatial locking effects, gradient changes, and continuous enrichment of transfer modes. Fourthly, a driving mechanism model of cluster intensity is constructed based on the 4M framework. The results demonstrate that tourist reception pressure, risks associated with transportation facilities, and risks related to the natural environment significantly influence cluster intensity. Social security risks partially inhibit cluster intensity through the "crowding out" effect of tourist flow, while safety management capability exhibits a noticeable negative inhibition on cluster intensity.