基于Crystal Ball和灰色关联法的进度控制研究

Research on Progress Control Based on Crystal Ball and Grey Correlation Method

为解决现代工程项目复杂性问题,缩短项目工期,文章基于Crystal Ball软件和灰色关联度分析方法对项目进行研究,探索二者结合后识别出的关键链进度管理模型。首先通过对Crystal Ball软件模拟仿真,探索关键活动;其次通过运用灰色关联度分析法确定活动调整优先级,得到关键链进度管理模型,通过分析资源紧张度、活动复杂度等影响因素计算缓冲区大小,得出项目工期。结果表明:采用关键链进度管理模型得到的项目工期,处于Crystal Ball软件仿真模拟允许工期范围内,在该模型优化计算下,可以缩短项目工期。

To address the complexity of modern engineering projects and shorten project timelines.The article studies the project based on Crystal Ball software and grey correlation analysis method,exploring the identified critical chain schedule management model after combining the two.Firstly,explore key activities through simulation of Crystal Ball software;Secondly,by using the grey correlation analysis method to determine the priority of activity adjustment,a critical chain progress management model is obtained.By analyzing factors such as resource tension and activity complexity,the buffer size is calculated to determine the proj-ect duration.The results indicate that the project duration obtained by using the critical chain schedule management model is with-in the allowable duration range of Crystal Ball software simulation.Under the optimization calculation of this model,the project durationcan be shortened.