变权物元可拓模型下舟山水域通航风险评估

Navigation Risk Evaluation of Zhoushan Waters under Matter-Element Extension Model with Variable Weight

为定量评估航道的通航风险,并克服现有评估方法指标权重不变和缺乏客观性的缺点,结合物元理论和变权理论,建立了舟山水域通航风险评估模型。首先从自然环境、航道条件和交通环境三方面构建评估指标体系,其次基于航道通航风险特点,建立惩罚性指标权重确定方法,最后通过物元可拓模型量化评估航道风险。选取舟山水域的5条航道进行实例仿真计算,仿真结果表明,变权物元可拓模型能够提高对不良指标的重视程度,使评估结果更贴近实际,提高了评估结果的可靠性。

In order to quantitatively evaluate the navigation risk of waterways,the navigation risk evaluation model of Zhoushan waters was established by combining matter-element theory and variable weight theory,which can overcome the shortcomings of the existing evaluation methods,such as constant weight and lack of objectivity.Firstly,the evaluation index system was constructed from three aspects,including natural environment,waterway conditions and traffic environment.Secondly,based on the characteristics of navigation risk,the weight determination method of punitive indexes was established.Then,the risk level of the waterway was quantitatively evaluated by a matter element extension model.Finally,this model was used to evaluate the navigation risk of five waterways in Zhoushan waters.The simulation results showed that this model can improve the degree of attention to adverse indicators and make the evaluation results close to reality.This method has improved the reliability of evaluation results.