临床预测模型研究方法与步骤

Methods and procedures of clinical predictive model

利用临床预测模型指导临床决策从而为患者提供精准的诊疗服务已成为临床实践的共识和趋势。但许多临床预测模型由于研究方法不规范,证据质量不高,最终能够实现临床应用的较少。本文结合预测模型研究的国内外进展,从数据收集、模型构建、性能评估、模型验证、模型呈现和模型更新6个方面介绍临床预测模型的开发过程以及临床预测模型研究的报告规范和偏倚风险评估工具,以期为国内研究者提供方法学参考。

The use of clinical predictive modeling to guide clinical decision-making and thus provide accurate diagnosis and treatment services for patients has become a clinical consensus and trend.However,the models available for clinical use are more limited due to unstandardised research methods and poor quality of evidence.This paper introduces the development process of clinical prediction models from six aspects,data collection,model development,performance evaluation,model validation,model presentation and model updating,as well as the clinical prediction model research report statement and risk of bias assessment tools in order to provide methodological references for domestic researchers.